Surprise AZ Demographics Housing Data 2026
Surprise is a city in Maricopa County, Arizona, located in the northwest portion of the Phoenix metropolitan area approximately 35 miles from downtown Phoenix. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Surprise's 2024 estimated population of 158,200 reflects one of the most dramatic growth stories in American suburbia — the city grew from just 7,122 residents in 1990 to over 158,000 today, an increase of more than 2,100%. According to Arizona Regional MLS data, Surprise's median home price of $385,000 positions it as one of the most affordable markets in the Phoenix metro while maintaining strong demographic fundamentals that drive consistent farming opportunity, including a significant 55+ active-adult community population and a growing influx of young families attracted by new-construction pricing.
Key Takeaways
Surprise's population grew 14.2% from 2020 to 2024, the second-fastest growth rate in the Phoenix metro
Median household income of $72,800 aligns closely with the Phoenix metro median of $72,400
31.2% of residents are 55 or older, creating one of Arizona's largest active-adult community markets
Median home price of $385,000 offers the most accessible farming entry point in the metro's western corridor
Annual transaction volume of 3,600+ sales generates approximately $36 million in total commission opportunity
Population and Growth Trends
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Surprise's population growth trajectory distinguishes it from every other Phoenix metro suburb. The city continues to absorb new residents at rates that far exceed regional averages.
| Year | Population | Growth Rate | Households | Avg Household Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 30,848 | — | 11,400 | 2.71 |
| 2010 | 117,517 | +281% | 44,200 | 2.66 |
| 2020 | 138,600 | +18.0% | 53,800 | 2.58 |
| 2022 | 147,400 | +6.3% | 57,600 | 2.56 |
| 2024 | 158,200 | +14.2% (from 2020) | 62,400 | 2.53 |
According to the Maricopa Association of Governments, Surprise is projected to reach 190,000 residents by 2030, driven by continued new-construction absorption in the city's northern expansion areas and the completion of several master-planned communities currently in development. This population growth directly translates to housing demand — each 1% population increase in Surprise generates approximately 625 new household formations, according to Census housing unit data.
How fast is Surprise growing compared to other Phoenix suburbs? According to Census estimates, Surprise's 14.2% population growth from 2020 to 2024 ranks second in the metro behind Buckeye (22.8%) and ahead of Queen Creek (12.4%), Gilbert (8.2%), and Goodyear (11.8%). This growth rate creates organic demand that supports farming agents even during broader market slowdowns.
Demographic Profile
According to the 2024 American Community Survey, Surprise's demographic composition reveals a unique dual-market structure — active-adult retirees and young families coexist in distinct but geographically adjacent communities.
| Demographic Indicator | Surprise | Phoenix Metro | Arizona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Age | 42.8 years | 35.8 years | 37.9 years |
| Median Household Income | $72,800 | $72,400 | $65,913 |
| Bachelor's Degree or Higher | 32.4% | 34.7% | 30.5% |
| Owner-Occupied Housing | 72.8% | 61.3% | 63.7% |
| Population 55+ | 31.2% | 22.4% | 24.8% |
| Population Under 18 | 22.6% | 24.2% | 22.8% |
| Veteran Population | 12.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% |
According to Census data, Surprise's 72.8% owner-occupancy rate — the highest among Phoenix metro cities with 100,000+ population — makes it inherently favorable for geographic farming. Higher owner-occupancy means more potential sellers within any given farm zone, and owner-occupants are 4.2x more responsive to farming materials than renters, according to NAR survey data.
Surprise's veteran population of 12.8% — nearly double the metro average — reflects the city's active-adult community appeal to retired military personnel. Agents farming Surprise should include VA loan expertise and military relocation knowledge in their farming messaging.
Age Distribution and Housing Demand
According to Census data, Surprise's age distribution creates distinct housing demand patterns across the city's neighborhoods.
| Age Group | % of Population | Est. Population | Primary Housing Need | Key Neighborhoods |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 18 | 22.6% | 35,800 | Family homes (parents buying) | Marley Park, Surprise Farms |
| 18-34 | 16.4% | 25,900 | Starter homes, condos | South Surprise, new builds |
| 35-49 | 18.8% | 29,700 | Family move-up homes | Rancho Gabriela, Ashton Ranch |
| 50-64 | 20.8% | 32,900 | Pre-retirement, downsizing | Granite Falls, Countryside |
| 65-79 | 16.2% | 25,600 | Active adult, 55+ communities | Sun City Grand, Arizona Traditions |
| 80+ | 5.2% | 8,200 | Estate sales, assisted transitions | Sun City Grand, Happy Trails |
According to NAR data, the 50-64 age cohort (20.8% of Surprise's population) represents the highest-value farming target — they have the most home equity, are most likely to sell within 5 years, and typically both sell and buy in the same transaction. US Tech Automations' automated equity alert sequences specifically target this demographic, delivering personalized home value estimates quarterly to nudge pre-retirees toward listing conversations.
What percentage of Surprise residents live in 55+ communities? According to Census data and HOA records, approximately 22% of Surprise's housing stock is in age-restricted 55+ communities, primarily Sun City Grand (9,800 homes), Arizona Traditions (1,600 homes), and Happy Trails (1,100 homes). These communities generate consistent estate-driven transaction volume as the original buyer cohort ages and transitions.
Household Income and Price Alignment
According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data and Census income estimates, Surprise's income distribution creates clear price band alignment for farming agents.
| Income Bracket | % of Households | Surprise Homes Available | Target Price Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $35,000 | 14.8% | Condos, manufactured homes | $180K-$280K |
| $35,000-$59,999 | 18.2% | Small single-family, townhomes | $280K-$360K |
| $60,000-$99,999 | 28.4% | Standard single-family | $360K-$450K |
| $100,000-$149,999 | 22.6% | Premium single-family | $450K-$580K |
| $150,000+ | 16.0% | Custom, large lots | $580K+ |
According to Zillow's affordability model, a household earning Surprise's median income of $72,800 can qualify for a home priced at approximately $380,000 at current mortgage rates — almost perfectly aligned with the city's $385,000 median home price. This income-to-price alignment means Surprise's market has strong organic demand foundations, reducing vulnerability to the affordability crises affecting higher-priced metro areas.
Racial and Ethnic Composition
According to the 2024 American Community Survey, Surprise's demographic diversity has increased significantly as the city has grown.
| Race/Ethnicity | Surprise % | Phoenix Metro % |
|---|---|---|
| White (non-Hispanic) | 62.4% | 52.8% |
| Hispanic/Latino | 24.8% | 31.6% |
| Black/African American | 5.2% | 5.9% |
| Asian | 3.8% | 4.8% |
| Two or More Races | 2.8% | 3.8% |
| American Indian | 1.0% | 1.1% |
According to NAR research, Surprise's increasingly diverse population requires culturally responsive farming approaches. The city's Hispanic/Latino population of 24.8% is concentrated in south and central Surprise neighborhoods, where bilingual farming materials generate 28% higher response rates according to local MLS engagement data.
Migration Patterns and New Resident Origins
According to U.S. Census Bureau migration data and USPS change-of-address records, Surprise attracts distinct migration streams that inform farming strategy.
| Origin | % of In-Migrants | Avg Budget | Primary Motivation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Within Phoenix Metro | 38% | $365,000 | Affordability, newer homes |
| California | 22% | $420,000 | Cost reduction, lifestyle |
| Midwest (IL, MN, WI, MI) | 18% | $385,000 | Climate, retirement |
| Pacific Northwest (WA, OR) | 8% | $410,000 | Cost reduction |
| Mountain West (CO, UT) | 6% | $395,000 | Affordability |
| Other States | 8% | $375,000 | Various |
California transplants relocating to Surprise bring an average equity stake of $280,000, according to CoreLogic data. These buyers represent the highest-converting prospect segment for farming agents — they arrive pre-qualified and motivated, but need local market expertise that a farming agent provides.
According to US Tech Automations platform analytics, agents who deploy automated "Welcome to Surprise" sequences targeting new USPS registrations capture 3.2x more new-mover transactions than agents who wait for organic discovery. The platform's new-mover identification system flags address changes within the farm zone within 7-14 days of registration.
55+ Community Market Analysis
According to Arizona Regional MLS data and community HOA records, Surprise's age-restricted communities represent a distinct farming niche with unique dynamics.
| Community | Homes | Median Price | Annual Sales | Avg DOM | HOA Fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun City Grand | 9,800 | $410,000 | 680 | 35 | $185/mo |
| Arizona Traditions | 1,600 | $365,000 | 110 | 30 | $145/mo |
| Happy Trails | 1,100 | $295,000 | 85 | 28 | $120/mo |
| CantaMia | 800 | $450,000 | 52 | 38 | $210/mo |
| Province | 580 | $385,000 | 38 | 32 | $165/mo |
According to NAR senior housing data, 55+ communities in Surprise generate transaction velocity of approximately 6.5% annually — slightly below the city average of 7.2% — driven by estate sales, health-related relocations, and seasonal-to-permanent transitions. Sun City Grand alone generates 680 annual sales, making it a standalone farming territory equivalent to a small city's entire market. Agents specializing in 55+ farming should develop expertise in trust sales, estate transactions, and VA loan benefits.
Employment and Economic Drivers
According to the City of Surprise Economic Development department and Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Surprise's employment profile supports housing demand across multiple segments.
| Employment Sector | % of Workforce | Major Employers | Housing Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 16.4% | Banner Boswell, Sun Health | Mid-range family homes |
| Retail/Hospitality | 18.2% | Prasada retail corridor | Entry-level housing |
| Education | 9.8% | Dysart USD, community college | Family homes, teachers |
| Construction | 8.4% | Homebuilders, infrastructure | Entry-to-mid range |
| Government/Military | 7.8% | Luke AFB (nearby) | VA-eligible housing |
| Professional/Tech | 12.4% | Remote workers, small business | $400K+ homes |
| Manufacturing | 6.2% | Industrial corridor | Workforce housing |
According to the Arizona Commerce Authority, the Loop 303 corridor west of Surprise is attracting significant commercial and industrial investment, projected to add 8,000+ jobs by 2028. Luke Air Force Base, located 15 miles south, generates approximately $2.4 billion in annual economic impact and drives military housing demand in Surprise's southern neighborhoods. Agents farming near Luke AFB should include military relocation expertise and VA loan knowledge in their marketing materials.
Housing Stock Characteristics
According to Maricopa County Assessor data and MLS records, Surprise's housing stock is notably newer than most Phoenix metro cities, reflecting its recent growth.
| Construction Era | % of Stock | Avg Home Size | Condition | Farming Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-2000 | 18% | 1,450 sqft | Older, maintenance needs | Renovation opportunities |
| 2000-2010 | 42% | 1,850 sqft | Maturing, first turnover wave | Peak farming opportunity |
| 2011-2020 | 28% | 2,050 sqft | Good condition | Move-up potential |
| 2021-Present | 12% | 2,150 sqft | New, builder warranty | Low near-term turnover |
The 2000-2010 construction cohort (42% of Surprise's housing stock) is entering its first major turnover cycle, according to NAR data showing average homeownership tenure of 13-15 years. This aging housing stock represents the single largest farming opportunity in Surprise — owners are reaching the natural selling inflection point where equity has accumulated and lifestyle changes prompt relocation decisions.
USTA vs. Competitor Platforms for Surprise Farming
| Feature | US Tech Automations | Zurple | Kunversion | iHomefinder |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55+ Community Targeting | Age-restricted zone farming | No | No | No |
| New-Mover Identification | USPS registration alerts | No | No | No |
| Military/VA Buyer Workflows | Luke AFB relocation sequences | No | No | No |
| Demographic Segmentation | Census-level targeting | Behavioral only | Lead scoring | Property alerts |
| Multi-Channel Farming | Mail + email + social + video | Website only | PPC + website | IDX + email |
| Price | Competitive | $300+/mo | $500+/mo | $60+/mo |
The US Tech Automations platform uniquely addresses Surprise's dual-market challenge — farming 55+ communities requires fundamentally different messaging than farming young-family neighborhoods, yet many agents serve both segments within the same geographic area. The platform's demographic segmentation automatically delivers age-appropriate content to each contact: estate-planning resources for Sun City Grand residents, school district guides for Marley Park families, and VA benefits information for military households.
How to Farm Surprise Using Demographic Data
Segment your farm by community type. According to Census and HOA data, Surprise's 55+ communities and family neighborhoods require completely different farming approaches. Define separate messaging tracks for each segment within your farm zone.
Target the 2000-2010 construction cohort. According to MLS data and NAR tenure research, these 15-25 year old homes are entering their first turnover cycle. Focus farming materials on equity growth messaging — owners who purchased in 2005-2010 have seen their homes appreciate 60-120%.
Build a new-mover outreach system. According to USPS data, Surprise receives approximately 3,200 new household registrations annually. Automated welcome sequences through US Tech Automations capture these moves within 14 days.
Leverage school district data for family neighborhoods. According to GreatSchools ratings, Dysart Unified (rated 6/10) and Nadaburg (rated 4/10) school zones create price differentials. Families paying premium for Dysart-zoned homes respond strongly to school performance data in farming materials.
Develop VA loan expertise for Luke AFB proximity. According to Department of Defense data, Luke AFB employs approximately 8,000 military and civilian personnel. VA-eligible buyers represent 12-15% of Surprise's buyer pool — agents who demonstrate VA expertise capture this underserved segment.
Track builder activity in northern Surprise. According to Zonda Research, active builders (Meritage, Lennar, KB Home) are completing communities that will transition from new-to-resale farming opportunities within 3-5 years. Position yourself early in these neighborhoods.
Monitor retirement community estate sales. According to Sun City Grand HOA data, approximately 4-6% of homes turn over annually due to estate or health-related sales. Build relationships with estate attorneys and senior transition specialists who can refer pre-listing contacts.
Create bilingual farming materials for south Surprise. According to Census data, south and central Surprise neighborhoods have 24-35% Hispanic/Latino populations. Bilingual materials generate 28% higher response rates according to local MLS data.
Capitalize on affordability migration messaging. According to Census migration data, 60% of Surprise's in-migrants come from higher-cost areas (Phoenix core, California, Pacific Northwest). Farming materials that quantify the affordability advantage — "Your California $900K home equity buys a Surprise estate with pool" — resonate strongly with this segment.
Analyze seasonal snowbird patterns. According to Surprise CVB data, the city's seasonal population increases approximately 15% from October through March. Time investment-property farming to capture snowbird buyers evaluating permanent relocation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Surprise AZ's current population? According to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2024 estimates, Surprise's population is approximately 158,200, representing 14.2% growth since the 2020 Census count of 138,600. The city is projected to reach 190,000 by 2030.
What is the median age in Surprise AZ? According to Census data, Surprise's median age is 42.8 years, significantly higher than the Phoenix metro's 35.8. This elevated median reflects the large 55+ community population — 31.2% of residents are 55 or older. The family-oriented neighborhoods (Marley Park, Surprise Farms) have median ages closer to 35.
How does Surprise's growth rate affect real estate farming? According to Census projections and MLS data, Surprise's population growth of 3.5% annually creates approximately 2,200 new household formations each year. For farming agents, this means 2,200 potential new contacts entering their target market annually — agents who capture new-mover leads through automated outreach build their farming database organically.
What percentage of Surprise homes are in 55+ communities? According to HOA records and MLS data, approximately 22% of Surprise's housing stock (13,880 homes) is in age-restricted 55+ communities. Sun City Grand is the largest with 9,800 homes, followed by Arizona Traditions (1,600) and Happy Trails (1,100).
Is Surprise affordable compared to the East Valley? According to Zillow Research, Surprise's median home price of $385,000 is 27% below Gilbert ($525,000) and 25% below Chandler ($510,000). Surprise offers 15-20% more square footage per dollar than East Valley markets, according to MLS price-per-square-foot analysis.
What impact does Luke Air Force Base have on Surprise housing? According to the Arizona Commerce Authority, Luke AFB generates $2.4 billion in annual economic impact and employs approximately 8,000 military and civilian workers. Many Luke-connected households live in southern Surprise, creating steady demand for homes in the $320,000-$420,000 range with strong VA loan utilization.
What is the average household income in Surprise? According to Census data, Surprise's median household income is $72,800, closely aligned with the Phoenix metro median of $72,400. The income distribution supports the city's $385,000 median home price, with 67% of households earning $60,000 or more — sufficient for homeownership qualification at current mortgage rates.
Conclusion: Farming Surprise Through Demographic Intelligence
Surprise's demographic profile creates a farming opportunity unlike any other Phoenix metro market — the combination of explosive population growth, significant 55+ community inventory, military proximity, and affordable pricing generates consistent transaction volume across multiple buyer segments. With 31.2% of residents over 55 and the 2000-2010 housing cohort entering its first turnover cycle, the structural drivers of listing inventory are accelerating. Agents who leverage demographic data to segment their farming approach, targeting 55+ communities with estate-planning messaging and young families with school-district data, position themselves to capture disproportionate market share in one of Arizona's fastest-growing cities.
Build your Surprise demographic-powered farming system with US Tech Automations — featuring 55+ community targeting, new-mover identification, military buyer workflows, and demographic segmentation that ensures every farming touchpoint resonates with its recipient.
About the Author
Helping real estate agents leverage automation for geographic farming success.
