Resolved prediction markets

Markets that were resolved, then resolved differently28 markets moved after they had already resolved

A venue can go back and change a market after it has closed. When it does, the first answer is simply gone from the venue’s own page. We read the venues every day up to 24 Aug 2026 and kept each day’s copy, so we still have what the venue said the first time.

What a resolution looks like in our copyManifold · sealed 24 Aug 2026

This is the ordinary product, not the rare case. Every row is a real market, the answer the venue gave, the price the market was sitting at when it resolved, and the day we sealed our copy.

Questions are printed the way the person who opened the market typed them. Spelling mistakes included, because a question we tidied up is a question you cannot quote.

Manifold markets that resolved against the price18 of them

A market sitting at 1 per cent that resolves YES is the row a researcher goes looking for. The price below is the one in our sealed copy, taken on the day. The venue does not show it any more. Manifold only. It is the one venue here whose price at resolution is a real crowd price on every row: Kalshi's is zero on most thin markets and Polymarket does not give us one, so counting those in would put rows in this list that no crowd ever priced.

What we actually hold

119,295 sealed rows, taken on 54 separate days between 23 Jun 2026 and 24 Aug 2026. The markets behind those rows are Kalshi 59,379, Polymarket 5,900, Manifold 3,013. Those two totals do not match, and that is the whole point: a Manifold market comes back in read after read, so we hold it many times over and can see it change. A Kalshi or Polymarket market shows up in exactly one read. The run log records 65 finished collection runs over those 54 days, because some days were read more than once.

Doing this yourself

You can read any venue’s resolved list today. What you cannot read is the one from three weeks ago. None of these venues keeps a dated public copy of what a market said before it was edited, and a question that gets rewritten takes the old wording with it.

To have what is on this page you would have to pull three venues every single day, store every copy, and then compare your own copies against each other to find the ones that moved. Miss a week and the markets that resolved and dropped off inside that week never appear in any later file.

What you get

• Every market that changed after it resolvedThe question, what the venue said first, what it said after, and both of the dates we read it.
• Every resolution we sealed, with the price it resolved atQuestion as it was written, the answer, the price where we hold one, and the day we sealed it.
• The venues you nameKalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, or all three.
• The days we missed, namedEvery file says which days we could not read, so a gap never reads as a quiet week.
• Cancel any month by emailNo account to close, no notice period.

How it works

1. You email us and say which venues you follow.
2. We tell you what we hold for them and which days are missing, then send a checkout link in that thread.
3. A person emails you the file, and names anything we could not collect.