US Tech Automations

Other dated records Resolved prediction markets 18 rows held

Markets the crowd got wrong

These markets were sitting at a price that said one thing, and then resolved the other way. The price is the one we sealed on the day.

Price
Not for sale yet
Built for
Quantitative researchers, sports and finance data teams, and reporters
Read
Every day, up to 24 Aug 2026. Stopped 25 Aug 2026.
Newest sealed read
2026-08-24

Email us the markets you followNo card needed to ask. We reply with what we hold.

Newest sealed read: 2026-08-24. We read this source every day up to 24 Aug 2026, and collection has paused since 25 Aug 2026 with no date set for it to start again. We hold 54 sealed runs going back to 2026-06-23. Collection has paused. Manifold’s own terms now refuse us, and for Kalshi and Polymarket we have not read the publisher’s answer on whether we may take and keep this. Every copy we already sealed is unchanged and still here; nothing new is being added to it.

What this page is18 rows held · newest sealed read 2026-08-24

  • A market counts here if it resolved YES while priced at 10 per cent or less, or resolved NO while priced at 90 per cent or more.
  • 18 markets we hold do that.
  • All of them are Manifold, because Manifold is the only venue here whose price at resolution is filled in on every row.
  • The price is the one in our own sealed copy. We do not go back to the venue to check it, because the venue no longer shows it.

Real rows out of our sealed copies

These are rows we read out of dated copies we keep ourselves. The live source shows today only, so once a row moves, what it said before is gone from the place you would go to look.

12 of 18, sorted by how far the price was from the answer 23 Jun 2026 to 24 Aug 2026
QuestionHow it resolvedPrice when it resolvedDay we sealed it
Rcb wins ipl 2026NO99%26 Jun 2026
Will Portugal win against Spain?YES1%7 Jul 2026
Will Terminator2 earn more profit than ShogGoth over the next month?NO98%23 Jun 2026
🇺🇸🇨🇦 Will the U.S. and Canada reach a deal to prevent new 50% U.S. tariffs on Canadian impo…YES2.5%20 Aug 2026
Will the US and Iran jointly announce a nuclear framework agreement by June 30, 2026?YES2.7%2 Jul 2026
Will Bloomberg Opinion publish an op-ed about quantum computing within the next 30days?NO96.1%21 Jul 2026
Will May 2026 be Boulder's snowiest month of the entire 2025 to 2026 winter seasonNO94.8%23 Jun 2026
Will US impose new tariffs on Spain by end of July 2026?YES5.4%4 Aug 2026
Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon supply-chain designation by June 2026?YES5.8%2 Jul 2026
Will the unemployment rate in the Los Angeles metropolitan area be higher in June 2026 than…YES6.1%4 Aug 2026
Will Brandon Sanderson release a previously unannounced novel outside of an existing series…YES6.7%2 Jul 2026
MLB: Will the Los Angeles Dodgers sweep the Chicago Cubs OR will the 3-game series total 29…YES7.1%6 Aug 2026

What this page cannot tell you

  • We can only show a market that changed if we happen to hold it on two different days. If a venue edited a question and changed it back between two of our reads, we would never see it.
  • We collect three venues and only three: Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold. Nothing here covers any other prediction market.
  • We read every day up to 24 Aug 2026, but not every day worked. Between 23 Jun 2026 and 24 Aug 2026 there are 9 days with nothing sealed at all, and the longest run was 6 days, 12 Aug 2026 to 17 Aug 2026.
  • Each read takes the newest resolved markets a venue is showing, not every market that venue has ever resolved. A market that resolved and dropped off the list before our next read is not in here.
  • Questions are typed by whoever opened the market. We print them as they were written, spelling mistakes and all, because changing a word would make the row worth less than nothing.
  • A cheap market that resolves YES is sometimes a market nobody traded rather than a crowd getting it wrong. We do not hold trade volume, so we cannot tell you which is which.

See the file we hold

You do not have to take our word for what is in the file. Here are 25 rows of the real thing, carrying all 6 of its columns, cut out of the dated copies we sealed ourselves. Nothing in it is made up and nothing in it is tidied up.

  • Open the 25 rows as a CSVA plain spreadsheet file. It saves to your machine rather than painting itself into a browser tab, and it opens in Excel, Numbers or Google Sheets.
  • The same 25 rows as JSONThe same rows again, laid out for reading with code.

Nothing on this page is for sale. The sample file is free to read, and so is every row on the page above it.

These 25 rows are a slice of the file, not the whole of it. What we cannot show you here is how far back it goes: the file goes back further than these rows do.

Start the thread

No pay button on this one yet. Email operations@ustechautomations.com. We are not charging for this feed. A monthly price is a promise that a new file turns up next month, and we will not make that promise until a market moves after it has already resolved far more often than this one does — in the whole record there are ten days on which that happened at all, and the newest of them is 1 August 2026. The dated copies below are real and they are free to read. Name the markets or the platforms you follow. We reply with which of our dated copies hold them, before you spend anything.

Email us the markets you follow

We hold 54 dated copies, from 23 Jun 2026 to 24 Aug 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket rows appear on one copy each, so for those we can never show a before and after. There is nothing to buy yet.

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