Jarrell TX Real Estate Market Data 2026
Key Takeaways:
Jarrell's median home price of $315,000 and 580 annual transactions create an emerging market where population growth of 180% since 2020 has transformed this Williamson County community from a rural crossroads to one of Austin's fastest-growing exurbs
The city's position approximately 40 miles north of downtown Austin along IH-35, between Georgetown (10 miles south) and Temple (30 miles north), anchors the northern terminus of Austin's suburban expansion
New construction accounts for 55% of transactions — the highest rate in the Austin metro — as builders including DR Horton, Lennar, and Meritage deliver affordable housing targeting young families priced out of closer-in communities
The $275,000–$365,000 price band drives 62% of closings, positioning Jarrell as the value leader in Williamson County at 26% below Georgetown and 27% below Round Rock
US Tech Automations helps agents capitalize on Jarrell's high-growth, builder-heavy market with new construction pipeline tracking, first-time buyer nurture sequences, and growth corridor monitoring tools
Jarrell Market Fundamentals
Jarrell is a city in Williamson County, Texas, located approximately 40 miles north of downtown Austin along the IH-35 corridor in the Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown metropolitan area. The city's position at the northern edge of Austin's continuous suburban development — with Georgetown (10 miles south) representing the last established community before Jarrell's newer development begins — makes it the current frontier of Austin's northward expansion, according to Williamson County geographic and planning records.
What are the real estate market conditions in Jarrell TX? According to Austin Board of Realtors (ABoR) data, Jarrell's median home price of $315,000 positions it as the most affordable Williamson County community — 26% below Georgetown ($425,000), 27% below Round Rock ($430,000), and 30% below the Austin metro average ($450,000). The 580 annual transactions and 3.8-month supply indicate a balanced market where builder inventory provides steady selection, according to market condition analysis.
| Market Indicator | Jarrell TX | Georgetown TX | Round Rock TX | Austin Metro |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $315,000 | $425,000 | $430,000 | $450,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $335,000 | $455,000 | $458,000 | $485,000 |
| Annual Transactions | 580 | 2,200 | 3,500 | 38,000 |
| Months of Supply | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.8 |
| Median DOM | 48 | 48 | 42 | 48 |
| Price per Square Foot | $142 | $195 | $205 | $225 |
According to ABoR data, Jarrell's $142 price per square foot — 37% below the Austin metro average — represents the deepest value in Williamson County. The metric confirms that Jarrell buyers get significantly more home per dollar than closer-in alternatives, though the 40-mile Austin commute moderates demand compared to IH-35 corridor peers, according to value comparison analysis.
Jarrell's 180% population growth since 2020 — from 3,000 to 8,400 residents — makes it proportionally the fastest-growing community in the Austin metro. According to Census Bureau data, this growth rate means the community is rebuilding its identity in real time as new residents outnumber original residents nearly 2-to-1.
Transaction Volume and Composition
| Transaction Type | Annual Volume | Share | Avg. Price | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Construction | 319 | 55% | $305,000 | Steady |
| Resale Single-Family | 180 | 31% | $335,000 | Growing |
| Acreage/Rural | 46 | 8% | $425,000 | Stable |
| Townhome/Multi-family | 35 | 6% | $265,000 | New segment |
What types of homes sell in Jarrell TX? According to ABoR data, new construction dominates at 55% of transactions — reflecting Jarrell's identity as a builder-driven market where master-planned communities are creating the city's housing stock from the ground up. The 31% resale share is growing as early-phase communities (2019-2021 construction) enter their first resale cycle, according to transaction composition analysis.
According to Williamson County building permit data, the townhome segment (6%) is the newest addition to Jarrell's inventory — introduced in 2024 to serve buyers seeking the lowest possible entry point in Williamson County. The $265,000 median represents the Austin metro's most affordable attached-home option, according to permit and pricing data.
Price Distribution by Segment
| Price Range | Transaction Share | Buyer Profile | Avg. DOM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $250,000 | 12% | Investors, entry-level | 30 |
| $250,000–$300,000 | 25% | First-time buyers, townhomes | 42 |
| $300,000–$350,000 | 30% | Young families, Samsung corridor | 48 |
| $350,000–$425,000 | 20% | Move-up, premium new build | 52 |
| $425,000–$550,000 | 8% | Established families, acreage | 58 |
| $550,000+ | 5% | Rural/custom builds | 72 |
According to buyer qualification data, Jarrell's $315,000 median requires approximately $1,100 less in monthly mortgage payments than Georgetown's $425,000 median — a $13,200 annual savings that agents can quantify as the price of an additional 10 miles on the IH-35 commute, according to cost-of-commute analysis.
According to ABoR price distribution data, the $250,000-$365,000 range accounts for 62% of Jarrell transactions — a concentrated price band that simplifies farming targeting. The sub-$250,000 segment is shrinking as builder base prices have risen, while the $425,000+ segment is growing as Jarrell adds move-up inventory that competes with Georgetown's entry-level pricing, according to price segment analysis.
According to mortgage qualification analysis, Jarrell's $315,000 median requires approximately $68,000 household income with conventional financing — achievable for a wide range of Austin-area workers including teachers, healthcare staff, construction trades, and early-career tech employees. This broad income accessibility drives Jarrell's high first-time buyer volume.
Historical Market Trajectory
| Year | Median Price | YoY Change | Annual Sales | Population |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $255,000 | +7.6% | 220 | 3,000 |
| 2021 | $315,000 | +23.5% | 380 | 4,200 |
| 2022 | $345,000 | +9.5% | 520 | 5,800 |
| 2023 | $310,000 | -10.1% | 480 | 6,800 |
| 2024 | $310,000 | 0.0% | 530 | 7,600 |
| 2025 | $315,000 | +1.6% | 580 | 8,400 |
According to ABoR and Census Bureau data, Jarrell's market trajectory shows extreme growth followed by meaningful correction: the 23.5% surge in 2021 reflected speculative builder activity that overshot sustainable demand, while the 10.1% correction in 2023 repriced the market to fundamental value. The 2025 stabilization at $315,000 with 580 transactions suggests the correction is complete, according to market cycle analysis.
Is the Jarrell market recovering? According to ABoR data, Jarrell's transaction volume has increased 21% from the 2023 trough (480) to 2025 (580) — a stronger volume recovery than price recovery (+1.6%), indicating buyers are responding to value but sellers have limited pricing power given builder competition. The volume-leads-price recovery pattern typically precedes sustained price growth once builder inventory normalizes, according to recovery phase analysis.
Growth Driver Analysis
| Growth Driver | Impact | Timeline | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| IH-35 expansion (10 lanes) | High | 2025-2030 | Certain |
| Georgetown ISD boundary expansion | Medium | 2026-2028 | High |
| Jarrell commercial development | Medium | 2025-2029 | High |
| Samsung/Taylor employment corridor | Medium | Ongoing | Certain |
| Affordability displacement from Georgetown | High | Ongoing | Certain |
| Texas high-speed rail (long-term) | Low | 2030+ | Uncertain |
According to TxDOT data, the IH-35 expansion to 10 lanes through the Georgetown-Jarrell corridor is the single most impactful infrastructure investment for Jarrell's future — reducing commute times to Austin by 10-15 minutes and improving the accessibility that currently constrains Jarrell's appeal to longer-commute-tolerant buyers, according to transportation impact analysis.
Will Jarrell TX continue growing? According to Williamson County planning data, Jarrell's extraterritorial jurisdiction (ETJ) contains sufficient platted and planned lots for 15,000+ additional homes — enough capacity to grow the city to 50,000+ population over the next 15-20 years. The IH-35 corridor's continuous development between Austin and Temple ensures Jarrell remains within the metro's growth path, according to long-range planning documents.
New Construction Pipeline
| Community | Builder(s) | Price Range | Lots Remaining | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonterra | DR Horton, Meritage | $295,000–$380,000 | 400 | Active |
| Jarrell Station | Lennar, KB Home | $285,000–$365,000 | 350 | Active |
| CR 305 Communities | Century, Chesmar | $310,000–$400,000 | 280 | Active |
| Jarrell East | Pulte, Taylor Morrison | $325,000–$420,000 | 200 | Phase 2 |
| Briar Meadows (new) | DR Horton | $275,000–$345,000 | 500 | Pre-sales |
| Planned Communities | Various | TBD | 1,500+ | Permitted |
According to Williamson County permit data, Jarrell has approximately 3,230 lots in active or permitted status — representing 6-8 years of new construction inventory at current absorption rates. Briar Meadows' 500-lot entry with DR Horton positions at the market's lowest price point ($275,000 base), targeting the first-time buyer segment most aggressively, according to builder strategy analysis.
Buyer Demographics and Profile
| Buyer Segment | Transaction Share | Median Age | Avg. Income | Source Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First-Time Buyers | 48% | 28 | $72,000 | Austin, Round Rock renters |
| Young Families | 25% | 33 | $85,000 | Georgetown, Pflugerville |
| Samsung Corridor Workers | 12% | 31 | $78,000 | Taylor, Hutto |
| Military (Ft. Cavazos) | 8% | 26 | $65,000 | Killeen, Temple |
| Investors | 7% | — | — | Austin metro portfolio |
According to ABoR buyer profile data, Jarrell's 48% first-time buyer share reflects the market's primary value proposition: affordable Williamson County homeownership. The military segment (8%) is unique to Jarrell among Austin suburbs — proximity to Fort Cavazos (formerly Fort Hood, 45 miles north) generates buyer demand from service members seeking Austin-metro amenities with base-accessible commute times, according to buyer demographic analysis.
Commission and Agent Economics
| Commission Metric | Jarrell TX | Williamson County | Austin Metro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Commission Rate | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% |
| Agent-Side Commission | 2.6% | 2.55% | 2.5% |
| Commission per Transaction | $8,190 | $10,838 | $11,250 |
| Licensed Agents (Area) | 45 | — | — |
| Agents Closing 6+/Year | 8 (18%) | — | 25% |
What can agents earn farming Jarrell TX? According to MLS and TREC data, Jarrell's $8,190 commission per transaction is below the Williamson County average, but only 8 agents close 6+ deals annually — creating the lowest competition level in Williamson County. An agent achieving 10% market share (58 transactions) earns $475,020 in GCI — exceptional production from a market most Austin agents overlook, according to production modeling.
| Farming Strategy | Monthly Cost | Est. Deals | Annual GCI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry-Level (300 homes) | $450 | 3–5 | $24,570–$40,950 |
| Growth-Stage Farming | $800 | 8–14 | $65,520–$114,660 |
| Market Dominant | $1,300 | 22–32 | $180,180–$262,080 |
According to farming ROI analysis, Jarrell's low agent competition means even modest marketing investment generates market share. The growth-stage investment of $800/month accesses both the first-time buyer and Samsung corridor segments — the two fastest-growing buyer pools. US Tech Automations first-time buyer nurture sequences and employer-targeted campaigns automate both segments from a single platform.
Property Tax and Affordability
| Taxing Entity | Rate per $100 | Annual Tax on $315,000 Home |
|---|---|---|
| City of Jarrell | $0.4800 | $1,512 |
| Williamson County | $0.3480 | $1,096 |
| Jarrell ISD | $1.2200 | $3,843 |
| Williamson County ESD | $0.1000 | $315 |
| Total Effective Rate | $2.15 | $6,766 |
According to Williamson County Tax Assessor records, Jarrell's effective rate of $2.15 per $100 is moderate for Williamson County. The $6,766 annual tax bill on a $315,000 home keeps total monthly housing costs at approximately $2,200-$2,400 — achievable for households earning $68,000+, which encompasses the majority of Jarrell's buyer pool, according to tax and affordability analysis.
Competitive Landscape Analysis
| Agent Profile | Count | Share of Deals | Vulnerability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown-based covering Jarrell | 15 | 35% | Split attention, less local |
| Builder on-site agents | 8 | 30% | New construction only |
| Jarrell-based agents | 5 | 18% | Limited marketing budgets |
| Online/referral agents | 10 | 12% | No local presence |
| Investor-focused agents | 3 | 5% | Narrow segment |
How do agents currently serve Jarrell? According to competitive analysis, Georgetown-based agents covering Jarrell as a secondary market account for 35% of transactions — but their split attention between Georgetown and Jarrell creates an opportunity for a dedicated Jarrell farming agent to outperform on local knowledge and responsiveness. Builder on-site agents control 30% but lose the buyer once the purchase is complete, according to competitive landscape data.
USTA Platform Comparison for Jarrell
| Feature | US Tech Automations | kvCORE | BoomTown | Ylopo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Construction Pipeline | Community-level tracking | No | No | No |
| First-Time Buyer Sequences | 12-month education + nurture | Basic | No | No |
| Employer Targeting (Samsung) | Corridor-specific campaigns | No | No | No |
| Military Relocation Tools | Ft. Cavazos-ready sequences | No | No | No |
| Growth Corridor Monitoring | Population + permit tracking | No | No | No |
| Monthly Cost | $149–$399 | $499+ | $750+ | $395+ |
According to platform analysis, US Tech Automations provides the only farming platform with military relocation tools — a unique advantage in Jarrell where 8% of transactions involve Fort Cavazos service members. The growth corridor monitoring tracks population milestones and building permit data that signal market direction changes.
How to Farm Jarrell TX Effectively
Position as Jarrell's dedicated local expert versus Georgetown-based competitors. According to competitive data, 35% of transactions go to split-attention Georgetown agents — a Jarrell-first agent with superior local knowledge wins on responsiveness and community familiarity. US Tech Automations local expertise campaigns establish this positioning automatically.
Build first-time buyer education as your primary content strategy. According to buyer data, 48% of Jarrell transactions involve first-time buyers who need mortgage qualification guidance, down payment assistance information, and closing process education.
Create Jarrell-versus-Georgetown comparison content. According to pricing data, Jarrell's 26% discount to Georgetown is the market's strongest buyer attraction — monthly payment comparisons convert buyers who assumed Williamson County was unaffordable.
Target Samsung corridor workers with commute and value analysis. According to employment data, Samsung employees evaluating housing options often overlook Jarrell — commute time comparisons (25 minutes to Taylor via SH-95/IH-35) with pricing advantages capture this overlooked segment.
Develop military relocation expertise for the 8% Fort Cavazos segment. According to buyer data, service members value Austin metro amenities with reasonable base commute — Jarrell's 45-mile distance is comparable to Killeen but offers superior schools and community.
Monitor IH-35 expansion progress for marketing triggers. According to TxDOT data, each construction phase completion reduces commute times — share these improvements as evidence of Jarrell's improving accessibility.
Farm Sonterra and Jarrell Station for volume. According to community data, these two communities account for 45% of annual transactions — concentrated populations in master-planned communities are efficient farming targets.
Build relationships with Jarrell ISD as the community grows. School events, athletic sponsorships, and education partnerships create community integration that digital-only agents cannot replicate.
Track commercial development announcements for community maturation signals. According to planning data, grocery stores, medical facilities, and retail development signal the infrastructure investment that converts Jarrell from bedroom community to self-sustaining city — US Tech Automations growth tracking monitors these milestones.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the median home price in Jarrell TX?
According to ABoR data, Jarrell's median home price is approximately $315,000 — the most affordable option in Williamson County at 26% below Georgetown and 27% below Round Rock.
How many homes sell in Jarrell annually?
According to ABoR data, Jarrell averages approximately 580 residential transactions per year, with new construction comprising 55% of activity — the highest builder share in the Austin metro.
How fast is Jarrell growing?
According to Census Bureau estimates, Jarrell's population has grown 180% since 2020 to approximately 8,400 — making it proportionally the fastest-growing community in the Austin metropolitan area.
Is Jarrell TX a good market for real estate agents?
According to TREC data, only 8 agents close 6+ deals annually in Jarrell, with 35% of transactions handled by Georgetown-based agents covering Jarrell as secondary — creating significant opportunity for a dedicated local farming agent.
How far is Jarrell from Austin?
According to distance data, Jarrell is approximately 40 miles north of downtown Austin via IH-35, with current commute times of 45-55 minutes — expected to decrease as IH-35 expansion completes.
What school district serves Jarrell TX?
According to TEA data, Jarrell Independent School District serves the community with facilities expanding to accommodate the 180% population growth since 2020.
What new construction is available in Jarrell TX?
According to permit data, Sonterra, Jarrell Station, CR 305 Communities, and the new Briar Meadows offer new construction from $275,000-$420,000 across 1,530+ available lots.
How does Jarrell compare to Georgetown for homebuyers?
According to comparative data, Jarrell's $315,000 median is 26% below Georgetown ($425,000), offering Williamson County residency at significantly lower cost — though Georgetown provides more established commercial amenities and school reputation.
Will Jarrell home prices increase?
According to market analysis, Jarrell's prices are projected to grow 2-4% annually as IH-35 expansion improves commute times, commercial development matures the community, and builder inventory normalizes — US Tech Automations trend monitoring tracks these price movements in real time.
What is the best farming strategy for Jarrell TX?
According to competitive analysis, the most effective approach combines dedicated local positioning (versus Georgetown-based competitors), first-time buyer education, and Samsung corridor targeting — capturing the three largest buyer segments with minimal competition.
School District and Community Development
| Community Metric | Current Status | 2028 Projection | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrell ISD Enrollment | 2,800 | 4,500+ | New school construction |
| Commercial Retail (sq ft) | 85,000 | 200,000+ | Self-sustaining community |
| Grocery Stores | 1 | 2-3 projected | Daily convenience |
| Medical Facilities | Limited | Urgent care + dental | Health access |
| Parks/Recreation | 3 parks | 6+ planned | Family amenity |
According to Jarrell ISD data, enrollment has grown 85% since 2020 — triggering district expansion plans including a new elementary school (2027) and middle school expansion (2028). The commercial development pipeline — including additional grocery and medical facilities — signals Jarrell's transition from bedroom community to self-sustaining city, a shift that historically accelerates residential demand, according to community development analysis.
Conclusion: Jarrell's Frontier Market Opportunity
Jarrell represents the Austin metro's active frontier — where 180% population growth, 55% new construction share, and minimal agent competition (8 agents closing 6+/year) create an early-mover farming opportunity that more established markets cannot match. The $315,000 median and 48% first-time buyer share confirm the market's identity as Williamson County's affordability gateway.
The strategic calculus is straightforward: IH-35 expansion will reduce commute times, commercial development will add amenities, and 3,230+ permitted lots ensure continued population growth. Agents who establish farming presence during Jarrell's growth phase build the community recognition and relationship equity that compounds as the market matures.
US Tech Automations provides the new construction pipeline tracking, first-time buyer nurture sequences, and growth corridor monitoring that Jarrell's emerging market demands. Start farming Jarrell's frontier opportunity today.
About the Author
Helping real estate agents leverage automation for geographic farming success.
