Leon Valley TX Real Estate Trends & Forecast 2026
Key Takeaways:
Leon Valley is a 2.5-square-mile incorporated city in Bexar County, Texas, completely surrounded by San Antonio and positioned along the I-10 West corridor — one of the metro's strongest commercial and residential growth axes
The median home price of $265,000 has risen 4.8% year-over-year, outpacing the San Antonio metro average of 3.5%, according to San Antonio Board of Realtors (SABOR) data
Inventory has tightened to 2.1 months of supply — well below the 4-month balanced market threshold — creating sustained seller leverage across all price segments
The city's compact geography generates approximately 280 annual transactions, yielding one of the highest transactions-per-square-mile ratios in the San Antonio metro
US Tech Automations helps agents track Leon Valley's fast-moving trend signals with automated market monitoring, predictive analytics, and drip campaign triggers tied to inventory shifts
Trend Analysis: Leon Valley's Market Trajectory
Leon Valley is an incorporated city in Bexar County, Texas, located approximately 10 miles northwest of downtown San Antonio along the Interstate 10 West corridor. Despite its compact 2.5-square-mile footprint, Leon Valley functions as a self-governing municipality with its own police department, public works, and zoning authority — distinct from the surrounding City of San Antonio, according to Bexar County municipal records.
What direction is the Leon Valley TX market heading? According to SABOR data, Leon Valley has posted four consecutive quarters of positive price appreciation through early 2026, with the trailing twelve-month median reaching $265,000. The 4.8% year-over-year gain reflects persistent demand from buyers seeking inner-loop affordability along the I-10 corridor, where commercial development continues to add employment density, according to San Antonio Economic Development Foundation reports.
| Trend Indicator | Leon Valley TX | San Antonio Metro | Bexar County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $265,000 | $305,000 | $298,000 |
| YoY Price Change | +4.8% | +3.5% | +3.7% |
| Months of Supply | 2.1 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 24 | 38 | 35 |
| List-to-Sale Ratio | 98.2% | 97.1% | 97.3% |
| New Listings (Monthly Avg.) | 28 | — | — |
According to SABOR trend data, Leon Valley's 24-day average DOM — 37% faster than the metro average — confirms the supply-demand imbalance driving price acceleration. The 98.2% list-to-sale ratio indicates buyers are competing near asking price with minimal negotiation room, according to offer analysis.
Leon Valley's 2.1 months of supply in early 2026 represents the tightest inventory among San Antonio's inner-ring incorporated cities — tighter than Alamo Heights (2.8 months) and Helotes (3.4 months), according to SABOR comparative data.
Historical Price Trends
| Year | Median Price | YoY Change | Annual Sales | Avg. DOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $220,000 | +15.8% | 310 | 14 |
| 2022 | $248,000 | +12.7% | 285 | 18 |
| 2023 | $245,000 | -1.2% | 260 | 32 |
| 2024 | $253,000 | +3.3% | 270 | 28 |
| 2025 | $265,000 | +4.7% | 280 | 24 |
According to SABOR historical data, Leon Valley followed the classic pandemic cycle: rapid appreciation in 2021-2022, a modest correction in 2023 as rates rose, and a recovery trajectory through 2024-2025 that now exceeds pre-correction levels. The 2025 rebound to $265,000 — $17,000 above the 2022 peak — confirms the market has moved beyond correction and into genuine growth, according to market cycle analysis.
Is Leon Valley recovering from the 2023 correction? According to trend data, Leon Valley has fully recovered and surpassed its 2022 peak. The declining DOM trend (32 days in 2023 to 24 in 2025) and rising sales volume (260 to 280 annually) signal accelerating momentum rather than simple recovery, according to momentum analysis.
Price Segment Trend Analysis
| Price Range | 2024 Share | 2025 Share | Trend Direction | Buyer Profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $200,000 | 12% | 8% | Shrinking rapidly | Investors, condos |
| $200,000–$250,000 | 30% | 25% | Shrinking | First-time buyers |
| $250,000–$300,000 | 28% | 32% | Growing | Move-up families |
| $300,000–$375,000 | 18% | 22% | Growing fast | Premium buyers |
| $375,000+ | 12% | 13% | Stable/growing | Renovated premium |
According to SABOR segment data, the upward shift in transaction concentration — from the $200,000-$250,000 band toward $250,000-$300,000 and higher — reflects both price appreciation pushing homes into higher brackets and genuine demand migration from entry-level to mid-market. The sub-$200,000 segment's decline from 12% to 8% signals that Leon Valley's affordable inventory is being absorbed faster than it can be replenished, according to inventory trend analysis.
According to construction permit data from the City of Leon Valley, limited new construction within city limits (fewer than 15 permits annually) means price appreciation is driven entirely by existing-home demand — making resale inventory trends the critical metric for farming agents to monitor.
According to SABOR data, the $300,000+ segment grew from 30% of Leon Valley transactions in 2024 to 35% in 2025 — the fastest-growing price tier, driven by renovated homes and premium resales commanding prices that would have been unthinkable five years ago.
Inventory and Absorption Trends
| Inventory Metric | Q1 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q1 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | 42 | 48 | 38 | Tightening |
| New Listings/Month | 30 | 32 | 28 | Declining |
| Pending Sales/Month | 24 | 26 | 25 | Stable |
| Absorption Rate | 57% | 54% | 66% | Accelerating |
| Months of Supply | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.1 | Tightening |
How tight is Leon Valley's inventory? According to SABOR inventory data, the absorption rate accelerated from 57% to 66% over the past year while active listings declined from 42 to 38. This combination of rising absorption and falling supply creates the pricing pressure that drives appreciation above metro averages, according to supply-demand modeling.
According to listing analysis, Leon Valley's new listing rate of 28 per month in early 2026 — down from 32 in mid-2025 — reflects homeowner reluctance to sell in a rising market. This "lock-in" effect, where owners with sub-4% mortgage rates resist trading into higher-rate replacements, constrains supply and amplifies price pressure, according to mortgage rate impact analysis.
Neighborhood-Level Trends
| Area | Median Price | YoY Change | Avg. DOM | Supply (Months) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Leon Valley (Huebner area) | $285,000 | +5.2% | 20 | 1.8 |
| Central Leon Valley (Bandera Rd.) | $268,000 | +4.5% | 22 | 2.0 |
| South Leon Valley (Poss Rd. area) | $250,000 | +4.8% | 26 | 2.3 |
| East Leon Valley (Evers Rd.) | $258,000 | +5.0% | 24 | 2.1 |
According to SABOR neighborhood data, North Leon Valley near Huebner Road leads appreciation at 5.2% with the tightest supply (1.8 months), reflecting proximity to USAA and the Medical Center employment corridor. South Leon Valley's $250,000 median provides the entry-level access point driving first-time buyer demand, according to geographic analysis.
Forecasting Leon Valley's 2026-2027 Trajectory
| Forecast Factor | Current State | 2026 Outlook | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Rates | 6.5-6.8% | Gradual decline expected | Demand boost |
| Supply Pipeline | Minimal new construction | Continued constraint | Price support |
| Employment Growth | USAA, Medical Center expanding | Positive | Demand driver |
| Investor Activity | 15% of transactions | Stable | Price floor |
| Rate Lock-In Effect | Strong | Moderating gradually | Supply release |
What is the forecast for Leon Valley real estate? According to economic modeling from the San Antonio Economic Development Foundation, continued employment growth at USAA (15,000+ employees), the South Texas Medical Center, and the I-10 corridor commercial district supports sustained housing demand. Combined with constrained supply, SABOR market analysts project 3-5% appreciation through 2027 for inner-ring communities like Leon Valley.
According to NAR housing forecast data, a gradual decline in mortgage rates from 6.5-6.8% toward the mid-5% range would release pent-up demand from rate-locked homeowners — potentially creating a surge in both supply and demand that benefits agents positioned in tight-inventory markets like Leon Valley. US Tech Automations predictive analytics help agents anticipate these shift points and adjust farming campaigns proactively.
According to population trend data from the Census Bureau, Leon Valley's stable population of approximately 12,000 within its fixed 2.5-square-mile boundary means growth comes from turnover and densification — not expansion — making trend monitoring more predictable than sprawl-dependent suburban markets.
Seasonal Trend Patterns
| Quarter | Avg. Sales | Avg. Median Price | DOM | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jan-Mar) | 60 | $258,000 | 28 | Listing preparation |
| Q2 (Apr-Jun) | 85 | $270,000 | 20 | Peak selling season |
| Q3 (Jul-Sep) | 78 | $268,000 | 24 | Active market |
| Q4 (Oct-Dec) | 57 | $260,000 | 30 | Motivated buyers |
According to SABOR seasonal data, Leon Valley's Q2 premium ($270,000 vs. $258,000 Q1 median) represents a 4.7% seasonal swing — wider than the San Antonio metro average of 3.2%. Agents who time their farming campaigns to begin in January — building awareness before the spring surge — capture the maximum number of Q2 listing opportunities, according to seasonal campaign analysis.
Commission and Agent Trend Analysis
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg. Commission Rate | 5.25% | 5.15% | Modest compression |
| Commission per Transaction | $6,565 | $6,823 | Rising (price-driven) |
| Active Agents (Area) | 68 | 65 | Declining |
| Agents Closing 6+/Year | 10 | 11 | Stable |
| Top-Agent Market Share | 35% | 38% | Consolidating |
According to SABOR commission data, despite slight rate compression (5.25% to 5.15%), rising prices have pushed per-transaction commissions from $6,565 to $6,823. The declining agent count (68 to 65) combined with stable transaction volume means more opportunity per remaining agent — a trend favoring committed farming specialists over casual participants, according to agent production analysis.
How competitive is real estate in Leon Valley TX? According to TREC licensing data, only 65 agents actively market in Leon Valley, with just 11 closing 6 or more deals annually. The top-agent market share consolidation to 38% indicates a market rewarding consistent presence — exactly the pattern that systematic farming exploits, according to competitive analysis.
Demographic Trends Driving Demand
| Demographic Factor | Leon Valley TX | SA Metro | Trend Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Household Income | $55,000 | $58,000 | Affordability-sensitive demand |
| Population (Est.) | 12,000 | 2.6M | Stable within fixed boundary |
| Median Age | 36 | 35 | Working-age buyer base |
| Hispanic/Latino % | 62% | 55.8% | Bilingual marketing essential |
| Owner-Occupancy Rate | 48% | 55% | Large renter-to-buyer pipeline |
| Renter Households | 52% | 45% | First-time buyer opportunity |
According to Census Bureau data, Leon Valley's 52% renter population — the highest among northeast San Antonio incorporated cities — represents an untapped first-time buyer pipeline. Many Leon Valley renters are unaware they could purchase in the same community for monthly payments comparable to their rent at current prices, according to affordability analysis.
What demographics drive Leon Valley housing demand? According to Census data, Leon Valley's 62% Hispanic population makes bilingual marketing capability essential for farming success — agents who communicate only in English miss the majority of homeowner conversations. The $55,000 median income qualifies households for approximately $250,000 in purchase price, covering a significant portion of Leon Valley's inventory.
According to NAR demographic research, communities with high renter-to-owner conversion potential — like Leon Valley at 52% rental — generate above-average first-time buyer transaction rates when agents actively educate renters on purchase affordability. This education-to-conversion pipeline is a farming strategy uniquely suited to Leon Valley's demographic composition, according to conversion analysis.
According to Census Bureau projections, Leon Valley's fixed geographic boundary (2.5 square miles, no annexation possible) means population growth comes through densification — multi-family redevelopment and smaller-lot infill. This trend supports rising property values as demand concentrates within unchangeable boundaries, according to land-constraint analysis.
USTA Platform Comparison for Leon Valley
| Feature | US Tech Automations | kvCORE | BoomTown | Follow Up Boss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Trend Alerts | Automated threshold triggers | Manual monitoring | Basic alerts | No |
| Predictive Price Analytics | AI-driven forecasting | No | No | No |
| Seasonal Campaign Timing | Auto-optimized send dates | Manual | Manual | Manual |
| Inventory Alert Drips | New listing auto-campaigns | Basic | Basic | No |
| Farming Zone Analytics | Per-zone trend tracking | No | No | No |
| Monthly Cost | $149–$399 | $499+ | $750+ | $69+ |
US Tech Automations provides the trend-monitoring infrastructure that Leon Valley's fast-moving market demands. When inventory drops below threshold levels or price acceleration exceeds targets, automated campaign triggers ensure farming outreach responds to market conditions in real time — not weeks later when the opportunity has passed.
How to Farm Leon Valley TX Using Trend Data
Monitor SABOR data weekly for inventory shifts below 2.0 months of supply. According to trend data, sub-2.0-month supply triggers the most aggressive appreciation — agents who communicate scarcity to homeowners first win the listing.
Track the $300,000+ segment growth rate as a market health indicator. Premium segment expansion signals market maturation and rising commission potential for farming agents.
Time direct mail campaigns to begin in January for Q2 listing capture. According to seasonal data, Leon Valley's 4.7% Q1-to-Q2 price swing means sellers who list in April-June gain the maximum seasonal premium.
Create neighborhood-specific trend reports for Huebner, Bandera Road, Poss Road, and Evers Road areas. Hyper-local data outperforms generic metro statistics in farming communications, according to response rate analysis.
Use rate-lock analysis to identify likely sellers. Homeowners who purchased in 2018-2019 at sub-4% rates and have gained $50,000+ in equity are statistically the most likely to list when rates decline — US Tech Automations automated workflows identify and nurture these prospects.
Monitor absorption rate acceleration as a listing urgency signal. The jump from 57% to 66% indicates tightening conditions — communicate this urgency to fence-sitting homeowners.
Position Leon Valley's $265,000 median against Alamo Heights ($650,000+) and Stone Oak ($450,000+). The value comparison drives buyer interest from higher-priced communities.
Track USAA and Medical Center employment announcements as demand leading indicators. Hiring expansions at these employers directly impact Leon Valley housing demand within 60-90 days, according to employment-housing correlation analysis.
Develop a "market update" email series using US Tech Automations drip sequences. Monthly trend data delivered consistently builds agent authority and keeps your name in front of homeowners considering a sale.
Rental-to-Buyer Conversion Opportunity
| Metric | Leon Valley TX | SA Metro | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renter Households | 52% | 45% | Above-average pool |
| Avg. Monthly Rent | $1,250 | $1,350 | Affordable comparison |
| Mortgage Payment ($265K, 6.5%) | $1,420 | — | Close to rent parity |
| Rent-to-Own Gap | $170/month | — | Narrow, education closes gap |
According to mortgage comparison data, Leon Valley renters paying $1,250 in monthly rent face only a $170 gap to a mortgage payment on a $265,000 home with FHA financing — close enough that homebuyer education and down payment assistance programs can bridge the difference. Agents who market this rent-versus-own comparison to Leon Valley's 52% renter population tap into the largest untapped buyer pool in the area, according to conversion opportunity analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current real estate trend in Leon Valley TX?
According to SABOR data, Leon Valley is in an appreciation trend with 4.8% year-over-year price growth, tightening inventory at 2.1 months of supply, and declining days on market — all indicators of sustained seller-market conditions through early 2026.
How fast are homes selling in Leon Valley TX?
According to SABOR data, the average days on market is 24 — nearly two weeks faster than the San Antonio metro average of 38 days, with well-priced homes in the Huebner area averaging just 20 days.
Is Leon Valley TX a good place to invest in real estate?
According to market trend data, Leon Valley's constrained supply, employment-driven demand from USAA and the Medical Center corridor, and 4.8% appreciation rate create favorable investment conditions — particularly for buy-and-hold strategies in a market with limited new construction.
How does Leon Valley compare to nearby San Antonio suburbs?
According to comparative SABOR data, Leon Valley's $265,000 median is below Helotes ($380,000) and Alamo Heights ($650,000+), while offering similar I-10 corridor access and stronger appreciation rates.
What is driving price growth in Leon Valley?
According to economic analysis, three factors converge: constrained supply (no room for new subdivision development), strong employment proximity (USAA, Medical Center, I-10 commercial corridor), and affordability relative to surrounding San Antonio neighborhoods.
How many homes sell in Leon Valley annually?
According to SABOR data, Leon Valley averages approximately 280 residential transactions per year within its 2.5-square-mile boundary — one of the highest transaction densities per square mile in the San Antonio metro.
Will Leon Valley home prices continue rising?
According to market modeling, sustained employment growth, constrained supply, and potential mortgage rate relief support continued 3-5% annual appreciation through 2027, though rate-driven supply releases could moderate the pace temporarily.
What is the best time to sell in Leon Valley TX?
According to seasonal SABOR data, April through June delivers the highest median prices ($270,000 vs. $258,000 in Q1), the fastest sales (20 days DOM), and the strongest buyer competition — making Q2 the optimal listing window.
How many agents compete in Leon Valley TX?
According to TREC data, approximately 65 licensed agents actively market in Leon Valley, with only 11 closing 6 or more transactions annually — below-average competition for an inner-ring San Antonio community.
What automation tools help with trend-based farming?
According to farming ROI analysis, platforms like US Tech Automations that provide automated market trend alerts, predictive analytics, and campaign timing optimization deliver measurable advantages in fast-moving markets like Leon Valley where timing determines listing capture.
Conclusion: Riding Leon Valley's Trend Momentum
Leon Valley's combination of accelerating appreciation, tightening inventory, and declining agent competition creates a trend environment that rewards systematic farming over sporadic outreach. The market's 4.8% price growth and 2.1-month supply indicate conditions that favor agents who communicate trend data consistently and position themselves as market experts.
The compact 2.5-square-mile geography means a well-executed farming campaign reaches the entire city — no zone selection required. Combined with employment-driven demand from USAA and the Medical Center, Leon Valley's trends support sustained farming ROI for agents who commit to consistent presence.
US Tech Automations provides the trend monitoring, predictive analytics, and automated campaign infrastructure that transforms Leon Valley market data into listing opportunities. Start farming Leon Valley's trend momentum today.
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Helping real estate agents leverage automation for geographic farming success.
