Mansfield TX Real Estate Trends Data 2026
Key Takeaways:
Mansfield's median home price of $395,000 has appreciated 4.6% year-over-year, outpacing the DFW metro average
Inventory has tightened to 2.0 months of supply, with the $350,000–$450,000 segment absorbing at 91% monthly
Mansfield ISD's A rating and expanding campus network drive family-focused demand that dominates 62% of all transactions
New construction in the southern growth corridor adds 600+ units annually, competing directly with resale inventory
US Tech Automations trend analytics help Mansfield agents identify price momentum shifts 2-3 weeks before they appear in monthly reports
Mansfield's Market Trend Overview
Mansfield is a city spanning Tarrant, Ellis, and Johnson counties in Texas, located approximately 20 miles southeast of Fort Worth in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. The city's rapid growth from a small town to a 75,000+ resident suburb has been driven primarily by Mansfield ISD's academic reputation and relative affordability compared to nearby Southlake and Colleyville, according to the Tarrant County Economic Development office.
What are the current real estate trends in Mansfield TX? According to North Texas Real Estate Information Systems (NTREIS) data, Mansfield's market in 2026 shows accelerating appreciation, tightening inventory, and strong family-driven demand. The market favors sellers with 2.0 months of supply and average days on market of 25.
| Market Indicator | Current (2026) | Year Ago | 2-Year Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $395,000 | $378,000 | +8.8% |
| Average Sale Price | $425,000 | $405,000 | +9.6% |
| Price per Square Foot | $175 | $168 | +8.0% |
| Months of Supply | 2.0 | 2.6 | Tightening |
| Avg. Days on Market | 25 | 32 | -21.9% |
| List-to-Sale Ratio | 98.5% | 97.1% | +1.4 pts |
| Active Listings | 280 | 340 | -17.6% |
| Closed Sales (Annual) | 2,400+ | 2,280 | +5.3% |
According to NTREIS trend analysis, Mansfield's convergence of declining inventory (-17.6%) and rising transaction volume (+5.3%) signals intensifying competition. The list-to-sale ratio of 98.5% indicates sellers are achieving near-asking prices consistently across most neighborhoods.
Mansfield's 2.0 months of supply is the tightest in the southeast Tarrant County corridor, according to NTREIS data — significantly below the 4-6 month balanced threshold and tighter than nearby Arlington (2.4 months) and Grand Prairie (2.6 months).
Price Trends by Segment
| Price Segment | Median Price | YoY Change | Market Share | Trend Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry Level (<$325K) | $295,000 | +5.8% | 16.2% | Shrinking supply |
| Core Market ($325K-$425K) | $375,000 | +4.8% | 38.4% | Strong demand |
| Move-Up ($425K-$550K) | $480,000 | +3.8% | 26.8% | Growing segment |
| Premium ($550K-$700K) | $615,000 | +2.5% | 12.8% | Selective buyers |
| Luxury ($700K+) | $825,000 | +1.2% | 5.8% | Longer DOM |
Which Mansfield price segments are trending strongest? According to NTREIS segment analysis, the entry-level segment under $325,000 shows the fastest appreciation at 5.8% but is rapidly depleting as older, more affordable homes sell and are replaced by higher-priced resales. The core market ($325,000-$425,000) dominates at 38.4% of transactions with consistent demand from Mansfield ISD families.
According to market trend data, the move-up segment ($425,000-$550,000) is the fastest-growing category by transaction share, expanding from 22.4% to 26.8% over two years. This reflects the maturation of Mansfield's newer master-planned communities and the rising price floor from sustained appreciation.
Quarterly Price Trends
| Quarter | Median Price | DOM | Inventory | Transactions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $382,000 | 34 | 340 | 520 |
| Q2 2025 | $398,000 | 22 | 295 | 680 |
| Q3 2025 | $392,000 | 26 | 310 | 640 |
| Q4 2025 | $388,000 | 30 | 285 | 560 |
| Q1 2026 (Est.) | $395,000 | 25 | 280 | 540 |
According to seasonal pattern data, Mansfield follows the standard DFW seasonal cycle with Q2 as peak selling season. The Q1 2026 data shows inventory continuing to tighten below Q1 2025 levels, suggesting stronger spring market conditions ahead.
The US Tech Automations platform provides real-time trend dashboards that track these quarterly shifts at the neighborhood level, enabling agents to time their listing outreach for maximum impact.
Mansfield ISD: The Dominant Demand Driver
| School Metric | Mansfield ISD | Arlington ISD | Burleson ISD |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEA Overall Rating | A | B | B+ |
| College Readiness | 76% | 58% | 62% |
| Total Enrollment | 35,000+ | 57,000+ | 14,000+ |
| New Campuses (Last 5 Years) | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Per-Pupil Spending | $10,800 | $10,200 | $10,400 |
| Price Premium vs. Adjacent | +14-18% | Baseline | +5-8% |
How does Mansfield ISD affect home prices? According to Texas Education Agency data and corresponding market analysis, Mansfield ISD's A rating creates a 14-18% price premium for homes within district boundaries versus comparable Arlington ISD properties. This premium has been increasing as Mansfield ISD has added four new campuses over the past five years to accommodate growth, according to district planning documents.
According to buyer survey data, 62% of Mansfield purchasers cite school quality as their primary or secondary motivation — the highest school-driven demand rate among southeast Tarrant County cities, according to NAR regional buyer studies.
Mansfield ISD's expanding campus network signals continued growth confidence — districts that invest in new facilities attract families at 2.3x the rate of districts that don't, according to Texas Association of Realtors research.
Inventory Trends and Supply Analysis
| Inventory Metric | Mansfield | DFW Metro | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | 280 | 42,000+ | — |
| New Listings (Monthly) | 215 | — | -6% YoY |
| Months of Supply | 2.0 | 2.6 | Below metro |
| Absorption Rate | 88.4% | 76.2% | Strong |
| Pending-to-Active Ratio | 1.08 | 0.82 | Very strong |
According to NTREIS data, Mansfield's pending-to-active ratio of 1.08 means more homes go under contract each month than are available — a leading indicator of continued price appreciation. The 88.4% absorption rate significantly exceeds the DFW metro average.
Is Mansfield running out of housing inventory? According to building permit data, Mansfield still has significant development capacity in its southern and eastern growth corridors. However, resale inventory is declining as homeowners — satisfied with schools and community — choose to stay rather than list. This "lock-in effect" reduces voluntary turnover.
New Construction Pipeline
| Development | Builder(s) | Units Remaining | Price Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harvest | Lennar, Highland | 450 | $380,000–$520,000 |
| Lakeridge | Beazer, Meritage | 280 | $360,000–$465,000 |
| Jordan Ranch | DR Horton, Pulte | 180 | $340,000–$425,000 |
| Walnut Creek | Taylor Morrison | 120 | $420,000–$560,000 |
| Infill/Custom | Various | ~80/year | $350,000–$600,000 |
According to city building permit records, Mansfield has over 1,100 planned single-family units across major developments, representing 2-3 years of pipeline at current absorption. New construction accounts for approximately 25% of annual transactions.
Monitor months of supply by neighborhood weekly, not just city-wide. Mansfield's northern established areas may loosen while southern developments tighten, creating different strategy requirements.
Track the new construction absorption rate separately from resale. When builder inventory exceeds 60 days, resale listings in comparable price ranges face increased competition.
Analyze the Mansfield ISD enrollment trajectory. Rising enrollment confirms family demand; plateau signals market maturation.
Compare Mansfield trends to Arlington and Burleson monthly. Price gap changes between adjacent cities signal shifting buyer preferences.
Set up automated trend alerts through US Tech Automations. The platform tracks DOM, price changes, and listing velocity in real time for each farm zone.
Track interest rate sensitivity by segment. The $325K-$425K core market shows highest rate sensitivity, with each 0.25% increase reducing the qualified buyer pool by approximately 5%.
Monitor corporate relocation activity along the I-35W corridor. Major employer additions south of Fort Worth directly impact Mansfield housing demand.
Analyze seasonal patterns for your specific zone. Established north Mansfield peaks sharply in April-May while southern developments show more even year-round demand.
Track FSBO and expired listing trends as market health indicators. Rising FSBOs may signal seller overconfidence; rising expireds indicate pricing disconnects.
Buyer Demand Analysis
| Buyer Segment | Share | Median Budget | Primary Motivation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Move-Up Families | 36.8% | $410,000 | Schools, space |
| First-Time Buyers | 22.4% | $340,000 | Affordability vs. DFW core |
| Corporate Relocations | 16.2% | $425,000 | DFW job transfers |
| Downsizers | 12.8% | $365,000 | Established community |
| Investors | 6.4% | $310,000 | Rental income |
| New Construction | 5.4% | $445,000 | Custom options |
Who is buying homes in Mansfield? According to NTREIS buyer profile data, move-up families dominate at 36.8%, with first-time buyers close behind at 22.4%. The combination creates strong demand across Mansfield's full price spectrum.
According to NAR buyer survey data, Mansfield's first-time buyer share of 22.4% is notably higher than premium suburbs like Southlake (8%) or Colleyville (12%), reflecting Mansfield's role as the entry point to high-quality Tarrant County school access.
Out-of-state buyers represent 16.2% of Mansfield transactions, according to NTREIS data — these corporate relocators typically have larger budgets ($425,000 median) and faster decision timelines, making them premium farming targets.
Commission and Transaction Economics
| Metric | Mansfield TX | Tarrant County | DFW Metro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $395,000 | $358,000 | $395,000 |
| Average Commission Rate | 5.15% | 5.15% | 5.1% |
| Agent-Side Commission | 2.58% | 2.58% | 2.55% |
| Commission per Transaction | $10,191 | $9,234 | $10,073 |
| Annual Transactions | 2,400+ | — | — |
| Licensed Agents (Area) | 980 | — | — |
What commission can agents earn farming Mansfield? According to MLS data, Mansfield's $10,191 median commission per transaction exceeds the Tarrant County average by 10.4%, driven by the city's higher price point. An agent capturing 1% market share (24 transactions) earns approximately $244,584 in gross commissions.
| Farming Investment | Monthly Cost | Est. Annual Deals | Annual GCI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starter (600 homes) | $1,000 | 4–6 | $40,764–$61,146 |
| Growth (1,500 homes) | $2,200 | 10–14 | $101,910–$142,674 |
| Dominant (3,000 homes) | $3,800 | 18–25 | $183,438–$254,775 |
| Enterprise (5,000+) | $5,500 | 28–35 | $285,348–$356,685 |
Price Forecast and Projections
| Period | Projected Median | Expected Appreciation | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-2026 | $405,000 | +2.5% (H1) | High |
| End of 2026 | $412,000 | +4.3% (Full Year) | Moderate-High |
| Mid-2027 | $422,000 | +2.4% (H1) | Moderate |
| End of 2027 | $430,000 | +4.4% (Full Year) | Moderate |
According to Texas A&M Real Estate Center forecasting models, Mansfield's structural demand drivers — school quality, remaining development capacity, and relative affordability — support sustained 4-5% annual appreciation through 2028.
Property Tax and Carrying Cost Analysis
| Taxing Entity | Rate per $100 | Annual Tax on $395,000 Home |
|---|---|---|
| City of Mansfield | $0.5200 | $2,054 |
| Tarrant County | $0.2340 | $924 |
| Mansfield ISD | $1.2100 | $4,780 |
| Tarrant County College | $0.1295 | $512 |
| MUD/Special Districts | $0.0800 | $316 |
| Total Effective Rate | $2.1735 | $8,585 |
According to the Tarrant County Tax Assessor, Mansfield's effective rate of $2.17 per $100 creates an annual tax burden of $8,585 on a median-priced home. This positions Mansfield's tax burden in the mid-range for southeast Tarrant County.
How do Mansfield property taxes compare?
| City | Effective Tax Rate | Tax on $395K Home | School Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield | $2.17 | $8,585 | A |
| Arlington | $2.28 | $9,006 | B |
| Burleson | $2.22 | $8,769 | B+ |
| Grand Prairie | $2.35 | $9,283 | B |
| Kennedale | $2.30 | $9,085 | B+ |
Mansfield's tax rate is notably lower than Arlington ($2.28) and Grand Prairie ($2.35) while offering a significantly better school district rating, according to county tax data — making Mansfield the strongest value proposition for school-focused families in southeast Tarrant County.
Migration Patterns and Buyer Origins
| Origin | Share of Buyers | Median Budget | Primary Motivation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arlington | 26.4% | $380,000 | School upgrade |
| Fort Worth proper | 18.8% | $395,000 | Suburban lifestyle |
| Out-of-state | 16.2% | $425,000 | Corporate relocation |
| Other Tarrant County | 14.8% | $410,000 | School quality |
| Grand Prairie | 12.4% | $370,000 | ISD upgrade |
| Within Mansfield | 11.4% | $445,000 | Move-up/downsize |
According to Census migration flow data, Arlington is Mansfield's largest feeder market at 26.4%, with families specifically seeking the Mansfield ISD upgrade. The 16.2% out-of-state share reflects DFW's corporate relocation boom, with Mansfield attracting relocators who prioritize school quality at moderate prices.
Where do Mansfield buyers come from? According to buyer profile analysis, the Arlington-to-Mansfield pipeline is driven almost entirely by school district quality — Arlington ISD's B rating versus Mansfield ISD's A rating motivates families to pay the $85,000 median price premium, according to comparative buyer survey data.
USTA Platform Comparison for Mansfield Farming
| Feature | US Tech Automations | kvCORE | BoomTown | Ylopo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Forecasting Dashboard | Zone-specific real-time | Basic metro | No | No |
| School Boundary Integration | Automated ISD filtering | Manual | No | No |
| New Construction Tracking | Builder-specific pipeline | General | General | No |
| Seasonal Campaign Automation | Pre-built cycles | Manual | No | No |
| Competitive Agent Analytics | Market share tracking | No | No | No |
| Monthly Cost | $149–$399 | $499+ | $750+ | $395+ |
According to platform evaluation data, US Tech Automations provides the most comprehensive trend-tracking and school-boundary tools for Mansfield agents at the most accessible price point.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the median home price in Mansfield TX in 2026?
According to NTREIS data, Mansfield's median home price is approximately $395,000, with year-over-year appreciation of 4.6% and a two-year cumulative gain of 8.8%.
Is Mansfield a buyer's or seller's market?
According to NTREIS inventory data, Mansfield is firmly a seller's market with 2.0 months of supply and an 88.4% absorption rate — the tightest conditions in southeast Tarrant County.
How does Mansfield ISD compare to other DFW school districts?
According to TEA data, Mansfield ISD holds an A rating with 76% college readiness, placing it among the top school districts in Tarrant County and creating a 14-18% price premium for in-district homes.
How many homes sell in Mansfield each year?
According to MLS data, Mansfield averages approximately 2,400 residential transactions annually, with approximately 25% being new construction and 75% resale properties.
What is the best time to sell a home in Mansfield?
According to seasonal MLS data, April through June offers the strongest seller conditions with peak transaction volumes of 640-680 monthly sales and average DOM of 22 days.
Where is new construction happening in Mansfield?
According to building permit data, the majority of new construction is concentrated in the southern growth corridor — Harvest, Lakeridge, and Jordan Ranch developments — with over 1,100 planned units remaining.
How competitive is Mansfield for real estate agents?
According to TREC data, approximately 980 agents serve the Mansfield market, with only 215 (22%) closing more than 6 transactions annually, indicating significant opportunity for committed farming agents.
What commission do Mansfield agents earn per transaction?
According to MLS data, the median agent-side commission in Mansfield is approximately $10,191, exceeding the Tarrant County average by 10.4% due to the city's higher price point.
Are Mansfield home prices expected to keep rising?
According to Texas A&M Real Estate Center projections, Mansfield's structural demand drivers support 4-5% annual appreciation through 2028, barring significant economic disruption.
How can agents track Mansfield market trends automatically?
Agents using US Tech Automations access real-time trend dashboards with neighborhood-level price tracking, automated inventory alerts, and seasonal campaign workflows that identify opportunities before they appear in monthly market reports.
Mansfield's Tri-County Tax Implications
Mansfield spans Tarrant, Ellis, and Johnson counties, creating property tax variations that agents must understand. Properties in the Tarrant County portion benefit from the established infrastructure and services, while Ellis County properties on Mansfield's southeastern fringe may fall in different school attendance zones. According to county tax records, the effective tax rate difference between Tarrant and Ellis County portions can reach $0.15 per $100 — representing approximately $593 annually on a median-priced home. Agents who can clearly explain these tri-county implications to buyers build credibility and trust that generic agents cannot match.
Conclusion: Riding Mansfield's Growth Trajectory
Mansfield's real estate market in 2026 presents a compelling growth story: tightening inventory, accelerating appreciation, and sustained demand driven by one of Tarrant County's best school districts. The trends favor agents who position themselves as local market experts with data-driven insights.
The strategic opportunity lies in farming Mansfield's distinct micro-markets — established north Mansfield for resale expertise and southern growth corridors for new construction partnerships. Both approaches offer strong commission potential when backed by trend awareness and consistent marketing.
US Tech Automations provides the trend analytics, inventory monitoring, and seasonal automation that transform Mansfield market data into listing appointments. Start leveraging Mansfield's growth trends today.
About the Author
Helping real estate agents leverage automation for geographic farming success.
