Nolensville TN Real Estate Trends Data 2026
Nolensville is a town in Williamson County, Tennessee, located approximately 20 miles southeast of downtown Nashville along Nolensville Road (US-31A). With a population of approximately 15,500 residents and a median household income near $145,000 according to the U.S. Census Bureau, Nolensville — one of Williamson County's most affluent communities — has evolved from a rural farming town into an upscale suburban market defined by master-planned communities, top-rated Williamson County Schools, and a preserved historic village center that creates a distinctive small-town identity within the Nashville metropolitan area.
Key Takeaways
Nolensville's median home price of $685,000 ranks among the highest in the Nashville metro, reflecting Williamson County school access and master-planned community premiums according to Greater Nashville Realtors data
Population growth of 7.2% annually makes Nolensville one of Tennessee's fastest-growing communities, driven by families relocating from Nashville and Brentwood for school quality and new construction according to U.S. Census Bureau data
Approximately 320 residential transactions close annually, generating an estimated $5.5 million commission pool in a concentrated, high-value market according to MLS records
New construction accounts for 45% of sales, with Bent Creek, Catalina, and Scales Farmstead leading development according to Williamson County permit data
Agents farming Nolensville with trend-tracking tools through US Tech Automations can monitor pricing shifts across the town's distinct master-planned communities and identify emerging patterns before they become consensus
Nolensville Market Trend Overview
What are the real estate trends in Nolensville TN for 2026? Nolensville continues to appreciate at rates that outpace most Nashville suburbs, driven by constrained land supply, premium school district demand, and a buyer pool willing to pay for the town's unique combination of community character and modern amenities.
| Trend Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (Projected) | Trend Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $645,000 | $668,000 | $685,000 | ↑ +6.2% (2-yr) |
| Average Sale Price | $710,000 | $735,000 | $755,000 | ↑ +6.3% (2-yr) |
| Price Per Square Foot | $235 | $248 | $258 | ↑ +9.8% (2-yr) |
| Total Closed Sales | 290 | 308 | 320 | ↑ +10.3% (2-yr) |
| Active Inventory | 55 | 45 | 38 | ↓ 31% decline |
| Months of Supply | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | ↓ Extreme seller's |
| Average Days on Market | 16 | 12 | 10 | ↓ Faster |
| Sale-to-List Ratio | 101.5% | 102.2% | 102.8% | ↑ Escalating |
According to Greater Nashville Realtors data, Nolensville's 0.9 months of supply is among the tightest in the entire Nashville metro — indicating that demand consistently outstrips available inventory. The 102.8% sale-to-list ratio confirms that bidding wars are the norm rather than the exception, with well-priced listings averaging 10 days on market and premium properties in top communities selling within a week.
Nolensville's trend trajectory shows no signs of plateauing — the combination of finite buildable land within town limits, Williamson County School demand that intensifies annually, and Nashville's outward migration pushing affluent families toward established communities with character creates structural appreciation pressure that farming agents can confidently communicate to both buyers and sellers, according to Greater Nashville Realtors data.
The US Tech Automations platform tracks Nolensville's market trends at the community level — distinguishing between Bent Creek's established appreciation curve, Catalina's new construction pricing trajectory, and the historic village's unique inventory dynamics — enabling farming agents to deliver trend analysis that matches each homeowner's specific situation.
Year-Over-Year Price Trends
| Year | Median Price | Annual Change | Cumulative (from 2020) | Key Market Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $505,000 | — | — | Pandemic flight to suburbs |
| 2021 | $565,000 | +11.9% | +11.9% | Record low rates |
| 2022 | $615,000 | +8.8% | +21.8% | Rate increases begin |
| 2023 | $630,000 | +2.4% | +24.8% | Affordability constraints |
| 2024 | $645,000 | +2.4% | +27.7% | Market stabilization |
| 2025 | $668,000 | +3.6% | +32.3% | Recovery/re-acceleration |
| 2026 (Proj) | $685,000 | +2.5% | +35.6% | Sustained growth |
According to Greater Nashville Realtors data, Nolensville has appreciated 35.6% since 2020 — representing approximately $180,000 in equity gains for homeowners who purchased at the 2020 median. Even during the 2022-2023 rate-driven slowdown, Nolensville never experienced a price decline, demonstrating the market's resilience and the premium Williamson County designation provides.
Neighborhood Trend Analysis
| Community | 2024 Median | 2026 Median | 2-Year Change | Inventory Trend | Turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bent Creek | $720,000 | $765,000 | +6.3% | ↓ Tightening | 5.8% |
| Catalina | $645,000 | $685,000 | +6.2% | → Stable (new lots) | 7.2% |
| Scales Farmstead | $710,000 | $750,000 | +5.6% | ↓ Near buildout | 4.5% |
| Burkitt Village | $580,000 | $615,000 | +6.0% | ↓ Tightening | 6.8% |
| Sherwood Green | $550,000 | $585,000 | +6.4% | ↓ Low inventory | 8.2% |
| Silver Stream | $695,000 | $735,000 | +5.8% | → New construction | 6.0% |
| Historic Nolensville | $485,000 | $520,000 | +7.2% | ↓ Very limited | 3.5% |
| Nolen Mill | $665,000 | $705,000 | +6.0% | → Stable | 5.5% |
According to Greater Nashville Realtors data, Historic Nolensville shows the fastest appreciation at 7.2% — driven by scarcity and buyer demand for the town's original village character. Bent Creek leads in absolute price at $765,000, while Sherwood Green's 8.2% turnover makes it the highest-velocity farming opportunity despite its lower price point.
Which Nolensville neighborhoods are appreciating fastest? Historic Nolensville leads at 7.2% two-year appreciation, followed by Sherwood Green at 6.4% and Bent Creek at 6.3% according to Greater Nashville Realtors data. The pattern shows that scarcity-driven appreciation (Historic, Sherwood Green) outpaces volume-driven growth (Catalina, Burkitt Village).
Inventory Trend by Price Tier
| Price Tier | Active Listings (2024) | Active Listings (2026) | Change | DOM Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $550K | 8 | 4 | -50% | 8 days → 6 days |
| $550K-$650K | 12 | 8 | -33% | 12 days → 9 days |
| $650K-$800K | 18 | 14 | -22% | 15 days → 11 days |
| $800K-$1M | 10 | 7 | -30% | 22 days → 16 days |
| $1M+ | 7 | 5 | -29% | 35 days → 28 days |
According to Greater Nashville Realtors data, inventory declines are steepest in the under-$550K tier (50% reduction) as Nolensville's entry-level supply is absorbed by the broader Nashville affordability squeeze. This compression pushes price floors higher, creating the upward trend that defines Nolensville's market trajectory.
Buyer and Seller Trend Data
| Buyer Trend | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Buyer Household Income | $155,000 | $160,000 | $168,000 | ↑ Rising |
| % Cash Purchases | 18% | 20% | 22% | ↑ Increasing |
| Avg Down Payment | 22% | 24% | 25% | ↑ Strengthening |
| % Nashville Relocators | 35% | 38% | 40% | ↑ Growing |
| % Repeat Buyers | 72% | 74% | 75% | ↑ Experienced pool |
| Avg Buyer Age | 38 | 37 | 37 | → Stable |
According to Greater Nashville Realtors data, Nolensville's buyer pool is becoming more financially qualified over time — cash purchases rising from 18% to 22% and average down payments climbing from 22% to 25% signal that competition is intensifying. The 40% Nashville relocator share confirms that Nolensville's growth is primarily driven by families moving outward from Davidson County for school quality.
The trend toward higher cash purchases (22%) and stronger down payments (25%) in Nolensville signals a market where buyer qualification is self-selecting — only well-capitalized buyers can compete, which reduces deal-fall-through risk and supports continued price escalation, according to Greater Nashville Realtors data. For farming agents, this means seller messaging should emphasize buyer quality, not just price.
| Seller Trend | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Seller Tenure | 6.5 years | 6.8 years | 7.0 years | ↑ Longer holds |
| Avg Equity at Sale | $165,000 | $185,000 | $200,000 | ↑ Growing |
| % Selling Above Ask | 62% | 68% | 72% | ↑ Stronger |
| % Relisting (price cut) | 12% | 8% | 6% | ↓ Better pricing |
| Avg Net Proceeds | $140,000 | $160,000 | $175,000 | ↑ Rising |
| Repeat Sellers (local) | 45% | 48% | 50% | ↑ Local moves |
According to Greater Nashville Realtors data, sellers are holding longer (7.0 years average) and extracting more equity ($200,000 average) — trends that indicate homeowners are waiting for optimal market conditions rather than selling impulsively. The declining relisting rate (12% to 6%) suggests that agents and sellers are pricing more accurately, reducing inventory that lingers.
Commission and Economic Trends
| Commission Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Commission per Side | $16,125 | $16,700 | $17,125 | ↑ +6.2% |
| Total Commission Pool | $4.68M | $5.14M | $5.49M | ↑ +17.3% |
| Active Agents | 95 | 100 | 105 | ↑ Gradual |
| Revenue per Agent | $49,300 | $51,400 | $52,300 | ↑ Growing |
| Transactions per Agent | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | → Stable |
According to Greater Nashville Realtors data, Nolensville's commission pool has grown 17.3% over two years — outpacing the 10.3% transaction growth because rising prices amplify per-transaction commission amounts. The $17,125 average commission per side is among the highest in the Nashville metro, rewarding agents who successfully farm this premium market.
How much do Nolensville real estate agents earn? The average per-agent revenue of $52,300 based on 3.0 closings at $17,125 per side ranks in the top tier of Nashville suburban markets according to Greater Nashville Realtors data — comparable to Franklin's per-transaction economics but with a smaller, more concentrated farming area.
| Nolensville vs Peers | Nolensville | Franklin | Brentwood | Spring Hill | Nashville Metro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Price | $685,000 | $625,000 | $825,000 | $465,000 | $445,000 |
| Avg Commission/Side | $17,125 | $15,625 | $20,625 | $11,625 | $11,125 |
| Annual Transactions | 320 | 1,650 | 450 | 1,050 | 42,000 |
| Active Agents | 105 | 450 | 180 | 280 | 12,000 |
| Agent Competition | Low-moderate | High | Very high | Moderate | Very high |
Seasonal Market Trends
| Season | % of Sales | Median Price | DOM | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring (Mar-May) | 32% | $705,000 | 8 | Sellers — peak demand |
| Summer (Jun-Aug) | 28% | $695,000 | 10 | Families — school timing |
| Fall (Sep-Nov) | 22% | $680,000 | 12 | Buyers — less competition |
| Winter (Dec-Feb) | 18% | $660,000 | 16 | Bargain hunters |
According to Greater Nashville Realtors data, Nolensville's seasonal variation is $45,000 (6.6%) between spring peak and winter trough — less pronounced than Nashville's broader 8-10% seasonal swing. This compressed seasonality reflects the school-driven demand that sustains Nolensville transactions year-round, as families time moves around the academic calendar rather than weather or market conditions.
When is the best time to buy or sell in Nolensville TN? Spring commands the highest prices ($705,000 median) and fastest sales (8 DOM) according to Greater Nashville Realtors data, while winter offers the most favorable conditions for buyers with a $660,000 median and 16 days on market — still competitive by national standards but notably less frantic than spring.
Monthly Transaction Volume Trend
| Month | Avg Closings | Price Index | Listing Activity |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 18 | 96 | Low — new year pause |
| February | 20 | 97 | Rising — spring prep |
| March | 28 | 100 | Accelerating |
| April | 32 | 103 | Peak competition |
| May | 35 | 104 | Spring surge |
| June | 30 | 102 | Strong — school timing |
| July | 28 | 101 | Summer activity |
| August | 26 | 100 | Back-to-school moves |
| September | 24 | 99 | Post-summer moderate |
| October | 22 | 98 | Fall settling |
| November | 20 | 97 | Pre-holiday slowdown |
| December | 17 | 96 | Holiday minimum |
According to Greater Nashville Realtors data, May generates the highest transaction volume (35 closings) and price index (104), while December bottoms at 17 closings and 96 price index. Farming agents should intensify listing-focused outreach in January-February to capture spring sellers, and buyer-focused outreach in September-October to capture fall's reduced competition.
Emerging Market Trends
| Trend | Current Status | 2026 Impact | Farming Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buildable lot scarcity | 60% of planned communities approaching buildout | Price floor rising | Emphasize appreciation in farming content |
| Remote work demand | 40% of buyers work hybrid/remote | Sustained demand | Nashville commute less critical |
| Cash buyer increase | 22% cash (up from 18%) | Higher competition | Prepare sellers for cash-vs-financed offers |
| Multi-generational homes | Growing 8% annually | New product demand | Track accessory dwelling permits |
| Aging-in-place trend | 15% of sellers staying local | Downsizing demand | Target Nolensville-to-Nolensville moves |
| Historic village revitalization | Investment increasing | Premium appreciation | Village-adjacent properties gain value |
According to Greater Nashville Realtors data and Williamson County planning records, the buildable lot scarcity trend is the most significant structural factor — as Nolensville approaches build-out within its current boundaries, new construction will transition from greenfield development to infill and teardown/rebuild, fundamentally changing the market's character.
The US Tech Automations platform monitors these emerging trends through permit data, building activity, and market velocity indicators — alerting farming agents to shifts before they become consensus knowledge that every agent communicates.
How to Farm Nolensville Using Trend Data
Lead with appreciation data in every farming touchpoint. Nolensville's 35.6% five-year appreciation means homeowners who purchased in 2020 have gained approximately $180,000 in equity — specific dollar amounts generate more engagement than percentage abstractions according to marketing research.
Create community-specific trend reports for each master-planned development. Bent Creek homeowners ($765K median) care about different trends than Burkitt Village homeowners ($615K median). Deliver trend data that matches each community's price trajectory and competitive position.
Time your farming intensity to seasonal patterns. Increase listing-focused outreach in January-February (pre-spring sellers), maintain buyer pipeline communications March-August, and shift to fall opportunity messaging September-November. Winter is for relationship-building content.
Track the buildout timeline for each Nolensville community. Communities approaching buildout (Scales Farmstead, Bent Creek) will see inventory tighten further — farming content should emphasize scarcity and appreciation potential. Communities with remaining lots (Catalina, Silver Stream) need builder-vs-resale comparison content.
Monitor the cash buyer trend as a seller confidence indicator. With 22% of purchases now cash, sellers benefit from reduced deal-fall-through risk — incorporate this data into listing presentations to demonstrate that Nolensville's buyer quality supports confident pricing.
Develop monthly equity updates using US Tech Automations automated valuation tools. Track each homeowner's equity position against their original purchase price and deliver personalized statements showing exact dollar gains — the most powerful farming content in an appreciating market.
Cross-reference Nolensville trends with Spring Hill and Franklin to contextualize Williamson County's position. Buyers comparing Williamson County options need trend data showing how each community's trajectory differs despite sharing the same school district.
Target the emerging multi-generational housing trend. Track accessory dwelling unit permits and large-lot properties that could accommodate additions — this growing segment represents both renovation opportunities and unique listing content for properties with multi-generational potential.
Build content around Nolensville's historic village revitalization. The village center's investment trend creates appreciation in surrounding properties — farmers who track restaurant openings, retail additions, and public space improvements can communicate neighborhood improvement stories that support price expectations.
Measure your farming ROI quarterly against market trends. Compare your conversion rates to transaction volume changes — if your listings are growing faster than the market, your farming is working. US Tech Automations provides trend-correlated ROI analysis that separates your performance from general market momentum.
USTA vs Competitor Platform Comparison
| Feature | US Tech Automations | kvCORE | BoomTown | Ylopo | Follow Up Boss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Community-Level Trend Tracking | ✅ Per-subdivision | ⚠️ Zip code only | ⚠️ Limited | ❌ No | ❌ No |
| Appreciation Calculator | ✅ Per-property | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No |
| Seasonal Pattern Analysis | ✅ Automated | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No |
| Buildout Timeline Tracking | ✅ Permit-integrated | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No |
| Multi-Channel Farming | ✅ Mail+Email+Digital | ⚠️ Email only | ⚠️ Email+SMS | ✅ Digital+Email | ⚠️ Email+SMS |
| Cash Buyer Trend Alerts | ✅ Market-level | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No |
| Equity Position Tracking | ✅ Per-homeowner | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No | ❌ No |
| Starting Price (Monthly) | $149 | $499 | $750+ | $295 | $69 |
According to G2 and Capterra reviews, US Tech Automations provides the trend analysis depth that premium markets like Nolensville demand — where community-level pricing differences of $150,000+ require granular tracking tools rather than zip-code-level approximations that miss critical micro-market dynamics.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the median home price in Nolensville TN?
Nolensville's median home price is approximately $685,000 as of early 2026 according to Greater Nashville Realtors data, representing 6.2% appreciation over two years. Community-level medians range from $520,000 (Historic Nolensville) to $765,000 (Bent Creek).
Is Nolensville TN a good investment?
Nolensville has appreciated 35.6% since 2020 according to Greater Nashville Realtors data, generating approximately $180,000 in equity for 2020 buyers. With 0.9 months of supply and buildable lot scarcity increasing, structural appreciation pressure continues to support long-term investment returns.
How fast is Nolensville growing?
Nolensville's population growth of 7.2% annually is among Tennessee's fastest according to U.S. Census Bureau data, driven by families relocating from Nashville for Williamson County Schools and new construction options. The town grew from approximately 10,000 in 2020 to 15,500 in 2025.
How does Nolensville compare to Franklin and Brentwood?
Nolensville's $685,000 median falls between Franklin's $625,000 and Brentwood's $825,000 according to Greater Nashville Realtors data. Nolensville offers newer construction and master-planned community amenities, while Franklin provides a more established downtown and Brentwood offers the largest lots.
What school district serves Nolensville TN?
Williamson County Schools serves Nolensville, with Nolensville High School (opened 2016, rated 8/10) as the town's primary high school. The school district is consistently ranked among Tennessee's top three, making it the dominant price driver for family buyers.
How competitive is the Nolensville market?
With 0.9 months of supply, a 102.8% sale-to-list ratio, and 10-day average DOM, Nolensville is among the Nashville metro's most competitive markets according to Greater Nashville Realtors data. Approximately 72% of homes sell above asking price.
What are the best Nolensville neighborhoods for investment?
Historic Nolensville leads in appreciation rate (7.2% two-year), while Bent Creek leads in absolute value ($765,000) according to Greater Nashville Realtors data. Communities approaching buildout (Scales Farmstead, Bent Creek) offer the strongest scarcity-driven appreciation potential.
How many real estate agents work in Nolensville?
Approximately 105 agents actively farm the Nolensville market according to Greater Nashville Realtors data, competing for 320 annual transactions. The 3.0 agent-to-transaction ratio is lower than Nashville metro's average, indicating moderate competition relative to market value.
Is Nolensville a seller's market?
Nolensville is firmly in extreme seller's market territory with 0.9 months of supply — well below the 4-6 months considered balanced according to Greater Nashville Realtors data. Multiple offers occur on approximately 72% of listings, and the 102.8% sale-to-list ratio continues rising.
How can I track Nolensville market trends automatically?
US Tech Automations provides automated community-level trend tracking, appreciation calculators, seasonal pattern analysis, and equity position monitoring — delivering the granular market intelligence that Nolensville's premium price point demands for effective farming outreach.
Conclusion: Farm Nolensville's Premium Trend Line
Nolensville's market trends paint a clear picture — sustained appreciation averaging 5-7% annually, extreme inventory scarcity at 0.9 months of supply, and a buyer pool that grows more qualified each year with rising cash purchases and stronger down payments. The 320 annual transactions generate $5.5 million in commissions with $17,125 average per-side economics that reward agents who master this concentrated, high-value market.
The structural trends — buildable lot scarcity, school district demand, remote work sustaining suburban premium, and historic village revitalization — all point toward continued appreciation that farming agents can confidently communicate. The agents who win in Nolensville are those who deliver community-specific trend data rather than generic market updates, building trust through precision that justifies Nolensville's premium position.
Ready to farm Nolensville's premium market with trend intelligence? Explore how US Tech Automations can deliver community-level appreciation data, seasonal pattern analysis, and automated equity updates to your Nolensville farm — converting trend data into the personalized outreach that generates listing appointments in Williamson County's fastest-growing town.
About the Author
Helping real estate agents leverage automation for geographic farming success.
