Midlothian TX Real Estate Market Data 2026
Key Takeaways:
Midlothian's median home price of $375,000 reflects its position as the premium master-planned community hub of Ellis County, drawing families from Mansfield, Cedar Hill, and the broader southern DFW corridor
Annual transactions of 980 are driven by a 28% new construction share combined with strong resale activity in maturing master-planned communities
Midlothian ISD's A-minus rating — the highest in Ellis County — generates measurable price premiums of 10-15% over adjacent Waxahachie ISD zones
The city's 28% population growth over five years places it among DFW's top-10 fastest-growing communities, with the US-287 and US-67 corridor supporting continued expansion
US Tech Automations helps agents capitalize on Midlothian's premium growth market with master-planned community tracking, school district analytics, and new-resident onboarding workflows
Midlothian Market Fundamentals
Midlothian is a city in Ellis County, Texas, located approximately 28 miles south-southwest of downtown Dallas in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area. The city's position at the intersection of US-287 and US-67 creates strong multi-directional commuter access, bordered by Mansfield to the north, Cedar Hill to the northeast, and Waxahachie to the southeast, according to Ellis County geographic records.
What is the current state of the Midlothian TX real estate market? According to North Texas Real Estate Information Systems (NTREIS) data, Midlothian's 2026 market reflects a premium growth community operating at full velocity. The $375,000 median home price — 8.7% above the Waxahachie median and 5.7% above Cedar Hill — positions Midlothian as the premium choice in the southern DFW corridor, driven by superior schools and modern master-planned community design.
| Market Indicator | Midlothian TX | Waxahachie TX | Cedar Hill TX | Mansfield TX | DFW Metro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $375,000 | $345,000 | $355,000 | $405,000 | $395,000 |
| Average Sale Price | $398,000 | $372,000 | $378,000 | $428,000 | $425,000 |
| Price per Square Foot | $158 | $152 | $162 | $170 | $198 |
| Months of Supply | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 30 | 36 | 30 | 28 | 32 |
| Annual Transactions | 980 | 1,250 | 650 | 1,100 | — |
| YoY Appreciation | +4.6% | +3.8% | +3.5% | +4.2% | +3.8% |
According to NTREIS data, Midlothian's 4.6% year-over-year appreciation rate is the highest among Ellis County communities — outpacing both Waxahachie (3.8%) and the DFW metro average (3.8%). The 30-day average DOM and 3.0-month supply indicate a slightly seller-favoring market with healthy transaction velocity, according to market equilibrium analysis.
Midlothian's $158 price per square foot is 20% below the DFW metro average of $198, according to NTREIS data — offering families significantly more space per dollar while maintaining premium community amenities and A-minus-rated schools that rival much more expensive northern DFW suburbs.
Price Analysis by Community
| Master-Planned Community | Median Price | Price/Sq Ft | Year Established | Total Lots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Lagoon (Lagoon Living) | $425,000 | $175 | 2019 | 1,200 |
| Shadow Creek | $410,000 | $172 | 2016 | 1,800 |
| Hawkins Meadow | $385,000 | $165 | 2018 | 900 |
| Woodbridge North | $368,000 | $158 | 2015 | 1,100 |
| Coventry Crossing | $355,000 | $155 | 2017 | 750 |
| Established Midlothian | $325,000 | $145 | Pre-2010 | — |
Which Midlothian communities command the highest prices? According to NTREIS community-level data, Crystal Lagoon's $425,000 median leads Midlothian's market, driven by the unique amenity of the crystal lagoon recreational feature — one of the first in DFW. Shadow Creek's $410,000 median reflects its larger lot sizes and mature landscaping as an earlier-established community, according to community comparison analysis.
According to Midlothian planning department records, the $100,000 price spread between Crystal Lagoon ($425,000) and established Midlothian ($325,000) creates a natural move-up ladder within the city. First-time buyers entering at $325,000-$355,000 in Coventry Crossing or established neighborhoods become move-up prospects for Crystal Lagoon and Shadow Creek within 5-7 years — a farming cycle that US Tech Automations tracks through equity growth monitoring and life-event triggers.
Transaction Volume and Velocity
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Closed Sales | 880 | 940 | 980 | +11.4% (2yr) |
| Median Sale Price | $348,000 | $358,000 | $375,000 | +7.8% (2yr) |
| Total Sales Volume | $307M | $337M | $390M | +27% (2yr) |
| New Listings (Annual) | 1,020 | 1,000 | 980 | Tightening |
| List-to-Close Ratio | 86% | 94% | 100% | Improving |
According to NTREIS trend data, Midlothian's list-to-close ratio reaching 100% in 2025 — meaning every new listing is matched by a closing — indicates the market has reached absorption equilibrium. The 11.4% two-year transaction growth combined with tightening new listing supply creates upward price pressure that will sustain appreciation, according to supply-demand modeling.
According to NTREIS sales volume data, Midlothian's total market volume grew 27% in two years to $390 million — the fastest volume growth rate among Ellis County communities, driven by both transaction growth and rising prices.
Midlothian ISD School Premium
| School Metric | Midlothian ISD | Waxahachie ISD | Mansfield ISD |
|---|---|---|---|
| District Rating | A-minus | B+ | A-minus |
| Avg. Campus Score | 85/100 | 78/100 | 86/100 |
| College Readiness Rate | 68% | 58% | 70% |
| Graduation Rate | 95.2% | 91.8% | 95.5% |
| Student-Teacher Ratio | 15:1 | 16:1 | 15:1 |
| Price Premium vs. Adjacent | +10-15% | Baseline | +12-18% |
How does Midlothian ISD affect home prices? According to TEA campus rating data and NTREIS price analysis, Midlothian ISD's A-minus rating generates 10-15% price premiums over comparable Waxahachie ISD properties — translating to $35,000-$52,000 in additional value on a median-priced home. This school premium is Midlothian's strongest competitive differentiator in the southern DFW corridor, according to school district price correlation research.
According to Midlothian ISD enrollment data, the district is growing at approximately 5% annually — one of the fastest rates in DFW — requiring continued campus construction to maintain its low student-teacher ratio. The district's commitment to maintaining quality during rapid growth sustains the school premium that drives buyer demand, according to educational policy analysis.
New Construction vs. Resale Market
| Metric | Resale | New Construction | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Transactions | 706 (72%) | 274 (28%) | 980 |
| Median Price | $385,000 | $358,000 | $375,000 |
| Avg. Square Footage | 2,350 | 2,550 | 2,425 |
| Avg. DOM / Build Time | 30 days | 5-7 months | — |
| Buyer Profile | Upgrade/relocate | First-time/value | Mixed |
| Commission Structure | 5.1% total | 2.5-3% buyer side | — |
According to NTREIS transaction data, Midlothian's 72% resale share is notably higher than Forney's (58%), reflecting Midlothian's more mature community inventory. The $27,000 price premium for resale over new construction ($385,000 vs. $358,000) reflects the value of established landscaping, proven neighborhoods, and lot selection that new construction cannot replicate, according to new-vs-resale premium analysis.
Demographic Profile
| Demographic Indicator | Midlothian TX | Ellis County | DFW Metro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population (2025 est.) | 38,000 | 210,000 | 8,100,000 |
| 5-Year Growth | +28% | +18% | +12% |
| Median Household Income | $92,000 | $72,000 | $75,000 |
| Median Age | 34.8 | 36.2 | 35.1 |
| Owner-Occupied | 82% | 74% | 58% |
| College Degree+ | 38.5% | 28.2% | 38.2% |
According to Census Bureau ACS data, Midlothian's $92,000 median household income is 28% above the Ellis County average and 23% above the DFW metro median — confirming the premium demographic that drives the city's higher price point. The 82% owner-occupancy rate — the highest in the southern DFW corridor — reflects the family-oriented, stability-focused community character, according to demographic analysis.
What is the demographic profile of Midlothian TX buyers? According to buyer demographic analysis, the typical Midlothian buyer is a dual-income family aged 30-42 with school-age children, migrating from a starter home in Mansfield, Cedar Hill, or the broader southern Dallas suburbs seeking upgraded schools, newer homes, and master-planned community amenities.
Commuter Access and Employment
| Commute Route | Distance | Drive Time | Employer Access |
|---|---|---|---|
| To Downtown Dallas | 28 miles | 35-50 min | US-67/I-35E |
| To Arlington | 22 miles | 25-35 min | US-287 |
| To Mansfield | 12 miles | 15-20 min | US-287 |
| To Cedar Hill | 10 miles | 12-18 min | US-67 |
| To Waxahachie | 12 miles | 15-20 min | US-287/77 |
| To DFW Airport | 35 miles | 40-55 min | US-287/I-30 |
According to Texas Workforce Commission commuter data, Midlothian residents benefit from multi-directional employment access: US-287 north to Mansfield and Arlington employment centers, US-67 northeast to Cedar Hill and Dallas, and emerging local employment along the FM 663 commercial corridor. The diversified commute pattern reduces reliance on any single route, according to transportation planning analysis.
Investment and Rental Market
| Investment Metric | Midlothian TX | Ellis County Avg. |
|---|---|---|
| Avg. Rental Rate | $2,100/month | $1,650/month |
| Rent-to-Price Ratio | 0.56% | 0.52% |
| Cap Rate (SFR) | 4.8-5.5% | 5.0-6.0% |
| Investor Transaction Share | 8% | 12% |
| Rental Vacancy Rate | 3.8% | 5.2% |
According to rental market data from Zillow Rental Manager and RealPage Analytics, Midlothian's $2,100 average rental rate is 27% above the Ellis County average — reflecting the school district premium and master-planned community amenities. The low 3.8% vacancy rate indicates strong rental demand, though the 8% investor transaction share is modest compared to more affordable markets, according to investor activity analysis.
How to Farm Midlothian TX Effectively
Lead with Midlothian ISD's A-minus rating as your primary value proposition. According to buyer survey data, school quality is the number-one reason families choose Midlothian over adjacent Waxahachie — quantify the 10-15% premium in every listing and buyer presentation.
Develop community-specific expertise for each master-planned development. Crystal Lagoon, Shadow Creek, and Hawkins Meadow each have distinct buyer demographics and price dynamics that reward specialized knowledge.
Track new construction incentive cycles across Midlothian's active builders. The 28% new construction share means builder incentives directly impact your resale listings' competitive position — know what builders are offering at all times.
Use US Tech Automations equity monitoring to identify move-up prospects. Early buyers in Coventry Crossing and Woodbridge North (2015-2018 purchases) are entering the move-up window for Crystal Lagoon and Shadow Creek.
Target Mansfield and Cedar Hill families with school comparison content. The Midlothian ISD premium is most compelling when quantified against adjacent district performance metrics.
Create seasonal market reports for each master-planned community. Community-level data (active listings, recent sales, price trends) positions you as the neighborhood expert and generates listing conversations.
Monitor Midlothian ISD enrollment and redistricting decisions. Growing districts create campus boundary changes that shift property values — agents who communicate these changes proactively build trust.
Develop relocation content for corporate transfers to the Arlington/Mansfield employment corridor. Midlothian's commute position serves the US-287 employers that surrounding communities also target.
Build relationships with Midlothian's established builders for referral flows. In a 28% new construction market, builder relationships generate buyer-side opportunities and post-close referrals that compound over time.
Commission and Agent Economics
| Commission Metric | Midlothian TX | Ellis County | DFW Metro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Commission Rate | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% |
| Agent-Side Commission | 2.55% | 2.6% | 2.55% |
| Commission per Transaction | $9,563 | $8,580 | $10,073 |
| Licensed Agents (Area) | 220 | 480 | — |
| Agents Closing 6+/Year | 48 (22%) | — | 25% |
How much can agents earn farming Midlothian TX? According to MLS commission data, Midlothian's $9,563 median commission per transaction approaches the DFW metro average while operating in a less-competitive agent environment. The 220 licensed agents serving 980 annual transactions yields a favorable 4.5 transactions-per-agent ratio — above the DFW metro average of 4.2, according to agent density analysis.
| Farming Level | Monthly Cost | Est. Deals | Annual GCI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starter (400 homes) | $700 | 3–5 | $28,689–$47,815 |
| Growth (1,000 homes) | $1,500 | 7–11 | $66,941–$105,193 |
| Dominant (2,000 homes) | $2,600 | 13–18 | $124,319–$172,134 |
Property Tax Analysis
| Taxing Entity | Rate per $100 | Annual Tax on $375,000 Home |
|---|---|---|
| City of Midlothian | $0.5475 | $2,053 |
| Ellis County | $0.3400 | $1,275 |
| Midlothian ISD | $1.2600 | $4,725 |
| Navarro College | $0.1250 | $469 |
| Ellis County Hospital | $0.1875 | $703 |
| Total Effective Rate | $2.4600 | $9,225 |
According to Ellis County Tax Assessor records, Midlothian's effective tax rate of $2.46 is slightly below Waxahachie's $2.55 — a competitive advantage that agents should highlight. Some master-planned communities carry additional MUD assessments of $0.15-$0.30 that impact total tax burden, a detail that informed agents should proactively disclose to build buyer trust.
According to tax rate comparison data, the MUD-adjusted effective rate in Crystal Lagoon and Gateway communities can reach $2.76, bringing the annual tax bill on a $425,000 home to approximately $11,730 — still competitive with Mansfield's comparable properties but higher than base-rate Midlothian neighborhoods. Agents should prepare side-by-side tax comparisons showing that even with MUD surcharges, Midlothian's total cost of ownership remains 15-20% below equivalent homes in northern DFW suburbs like Plano or Frisco, according to total cost of ownership modeling. This total-cost perspective is a powerful farming message that consistently resonates with value-conscious families migrating south from higher-tax, higher-price northern DFW suburbs seeking premium schools without premium costs.
USTA Platform Comparison for Midlothian
| Feature | US Tech Automations | kvCORE | BoomTown | Ylopo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Community-Level Analytics | Per-MPC pricing + velocity | No | No | No |
| School Premium Tracking | District comparison data | No | No | No |
| Equity Growth Monitoring | Move-up prospect identification | No | Basic | No |
| Builder Incentive Alerts | Real-time incentive tracking | No | No | No |
| New Resident Onboarding | Automated welcome sequences | No | No | Limited |
| Monthly Cost | $149–$399 | $499+ | $750+ | $395+ |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the median home price in Midlothian TX?
According to NTREIS data, Midlothian's median home price is approximately $375,000, with 4.6% year-over-year appreciation — the highest rate among Ellis County communities.
How does Midlothian compare to Waxahachie?
According to comparative market data, Midlothian's $375,000 median is 8.7% above Waxahachie ($345,000), with the premium driven by Midlothian ISD's A-minus rating versus Waxahachie ISD's B+ rating.
What school district serves Midlothian TX?
According to TEA data, Midlothian ISD carries an A-minus rating — the highest in Ellis County — with a 95.2% graduation rate and 68% college readiness rate.
How fast is Midlothian growing?
According to Census Bureau estimates, Midlothian's population has grown approximately 28% over five years to 38,000 residents — among the top-10 fastest-growing communities in the DFW metropolitan area.
How many homes sell in Midlothian annually?
According to NTREIS data, Midlothian averages approximately 980 residential transactions per year, with 72% resale and 28% new construction.
Which Midlothian communities are most popular?
According to transaction data, Crystal Lagoon ($425,000 median), Shadow Creek ($410,000), and Hawkins Meadow ($385,000) are the highest-demand master-planned communities, each offering distinct amenity packages.
What are property taxes in Midlothian TX?
According to Ellis County Tax Assessor records, Midlothian's base effective rate is approximately $2.46 per $100, with some master-planned communities carrying additional MUD assessments of $0.15-$0.30.
Is Midlothian a good area for real estate agents?
According to agent density analysis, Midlothian's 4.5 transactions-per-agent ratio exceeds the DFW average (4.2), with $9,563 median commissions approaching metro norms in a less-competitive environment.
How far is Midlothian from Dallas?
According to TxDOT data, Midlothian is approximately 28 miles south-southwest of downtown Dallas via US-67, with typical commute times of 35-50 minutes.
What is the best farming strategy for Midlothian?
According to market analysis, the most effective strategy combines Midlothian ISD school premium messaging with community-specific expertise across master-planned developments — a multi-layer approach that US Tech Automations automates through community tracking and school district analytics.
Conclusion: Midlothian's Premium Growth Trajectory
Midlothian occupies the premium position in the southern DFW growth corridor — offering A-minus-rated schools, modern master-planned communities, and multi-directional commuter access at a median price still 5% below the DFW metro average. The 4.6% appreciation rate, 28% population growth, and tightening inventory supply all signal a market with sustained upside for both homeowners and agents.
The city's maturing master-planned communities create a natural farming lifecycle: new construction buyers become move-up prospects within 5-7 years, generating recurring transaction opportunities for agents who maintain community relationships. This compounding dynamic rewards long-term farming commitment over transactional approaches.
US Tech Automations provides the community-level analytics, school premium tracking, and equity growth monitoring that Midlothian's premium market demands. Start building your Midlothian farming dominance today.
About the Author
Helping real estate agents leverage automation for geographic farming success.
